We have the Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse by-election on Thursday, in 2021 the SNP polled 46.2% in this constituency but things are different today with the surge of Reform and whilst the SNP lead in the polls it isn’t impressive as it was in 2021. That said I think the value might be the 16/1 on them polling between 45% and 50% with Ladbrokes because they are appealing for tactical votes and it might work this time against a Farage…
This polling reminds me why I am glad I didn’t become a politician. The public want champagne and caviar but want to pay Tesco meal deal prices. TSE
TSE
There are two consistent themes to the polls for as long as I have been following them is that the polls overestimate how many people will actually vote in UK general election and that non-voters do not turn out to vote in the levels they say they will. The only two times in UK elections when that has hasn’t been the case has been the Scottish independence referendum and the Brexit referendum. So my initial thought was to think Reform’s…
I suspect a lot of attention will be on how support from independence increases if Farage becomes Prime Minister but we saw similar polling prior to Brexit and if Boris Johnson became Prime Minister but hypothetical polling has shown in the past it is regularly utterly bobbins. I suspect the next Scottish independence referendum is likely to be at least a decade away. As for the next Holyrood election this could be a bit of a mess, even though the…
33% of the public scare me, this polling is inspired by Justin Trudeau’s footwear faux pas. Only David Tennant’s Doctor looks good wearing trainers with a suit. TSE
As the possibility of Nigel Farage winning the next general election increases the narrative will change on what Farage as PM means. It is interesting that Starmer is following the lead of the Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp who has warned that Farage’s economic policies are ‘Liz Truss on steroids‘ I suspect this is something we will be hearing a lot from the traditional big two parties and it will be interesting to see how this polling moves over time….
There’s been quite a lot of excitement over the latest YouGov poll which has a subsample showing Reform leading in Scotland. This is based on 145 respondents in Scotland, unlike other pollsters YouGov do weight their subsamples but even still the margin of error is just over 8% so nobody should be confident in saying Reform are leading in Scotland. I will need to see full sized Scotland polls from a couple of reputable BPC registered pollsters showing Reform ahead…