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I’d be cautious about reading too much into this market as firstly it is a low liquidity market and secondly the only way I see Burnham succeeding Starmer is after the next general election and that is potentially four years away. I just cannot see how Burnham becomes an MP before the election because a by-election would be fraught with difficulties. If you think Starmer will not make it to the election then you shouldn’t be backing Burnham in this…

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Longstanding readers of PB know how much stock I place in economic questions (for example it was Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris last year that made me think he would win.) Based on the first tweet Labour looked doomed if they don’t improve things, it should be noted this polling was conducted before today’s worrying economic news which saw the economy grow by zero percent in July. What I find really intriguing is the growing partisan split on these…

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I am not a fan of class warfare and I am not particularly enamoured by this finding from YouGov but I am trying to work who this will benefit the most out of Bridget Phillipson and Lucy Powell. I understand why Bridget Phillipson is the favourite but I wonder if the best bet to be made is backing Phillipson and Powell as next Prime Minister at 33/1 and 50s at Ladbrokes and Betfair respectively. Their odds would tumble if scandal…

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There’s a ludicrous amount of hyperbole on social media today which I suppose isn’t different to any other day. Whilst Sir Keir Starmer showed poor judgment in picking a man who had to resign in disgrace twice before to be our man in Washington I am not sure voters will use as the main reason how they vote in 2029, the economy, schools and hospitals, and a dozen other things. The closest analogy I can draw to today’s resignation is…

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Yesterday news broke Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI, had passed away. He used to post on PB in the early days, advising Mike Smithson and other PBers to focus on the share of the vote for the parties and not to fixate on the lead. PBer Viewcode, like myself had the pleasure of meeting Sir Bob, this is Viewcode’s anecdote, ‘I met him briefly. He was gracious, informative and didn’t have any “side” to him, despite the fact that…

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I thought this was either a typo or I was misunderstanding the figures but it turns just 1 in 25 voters think politicians are primarily out for the UK. That’s a lower figure than 7% of Brits who think Liz Truss returning to frontline politics would be a good thing. TSE

I am not sure who to back in this market but I think might be a market where the profitable option would be lay rather than back. One thing that makes this election so exciting is that this election will be conducted under the alternative vote system rather than archaic and flawed first past the post system which should favour the most transfer friendly candidate. One thing which should be noted as the eligibility to participate in this election was…

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Taking back control from our unelected rulers for a new generation. TSE