They aren’t all the same
Just 25% of the public say the Tories and Labour are similar which may ruin a few narratives and memes. TSE
What’s this betting market going to look like on Wednesday evening?
MPs start voting in round one on Wednesday, my expectation is that Mel Stride will be the first to be knocked out then followed by Dame Priti Patel. Then voting is paused until after the last four hold a beauty parade at conference in early October. TSE
Support for an elected head of state up by a quarter since Charles became king
An increase of support for an elected head of state from 20% to 25% is an increase of 25% (5/20 = 25%). My use of statistics is unimpeachable. TSE
The Lib Dems and the Tory peril
As a lifelong Tory I get the feeling some of my fellow Tories are deluding themselves about the scale of the defeat. Yes Starmer polled a mere 33.7% at the election (but ignoring the Tories polled even lower), the result wasn’t as bad as the MRPs suggested, and well most Reform voters are really Tory voters in name, whilst ignoring the elephant in the room, the Lib Dems. As we can see from the below chart the gap between the…
This should move Betfair back to Harris
These are the polls I was expecting to see after the Democratic Party convention. My strategy is that Harris will be the favourite by the time of the first debate and if she comes through that unscathed she should maintain a lead on Betfair and the polls, that finding from Pennsylvania should have Trump Quakering. This is still a very close election though. TSE
So when thumbnails and previews go wrong
It’s not been a perfect campaign so far Tom Tugendhat, particularly with the turd incident but I do think he still makes the final two. Once Mel Stride is eliminated Tugendhat is the only one campaigning for the One Nation vote, so his odds will look very different next week as Tory MPs start voting next Wednesday. TSE
Another Boris Johnson failure, Brexit isn’t done
I suspect Starmer may get a bit of a polling boost if he seeks to undo Brexit. TSE
The pollsters could be missing a Harris surge
If Kamala Harris not only wins in November but wins bigly then it will be in part due to this surge in voter registration. I think having referenda on abortion in several states i vdriving this and that should help Harris. That said, registering to vote is one thing, voting is another thing. TSE