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The screen grab above is from yesterday’s Sunday Times, like most of Starmer’s inner circle I think this is a bananas ideas for several reasons. Let us say that Badenoch proves to be a disappointment and is replaced, a new leader might experience a new leader bounce which would be sub-optimal for Labour’s chances. The memories of Gordon Brown & Theresa May and snaps elections (hyped but not held and not hyped but held) will also focus minds. Also, having…

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It pains me to have to write so many threads relating to Elon Musk but this is the world we live in but I don’t think this intervention from Elon Musk will damage Farage at all. Siding with Tommy Robinson would see Reform’s support at very low levels which is why Farage in his past parties has been wise to avoid ex BNP types from his parties. If Donald Trump also renounces Farage then that would also be a benefit…

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Picture – Matthaeus Loder – The Card Layer – Germanisches Nationalmuseum, Nuremberg Last year’s PB Predictions Competition proved to be somewhat like Winston Churchill: popular but very difficult.  In true Churchillian ‘never-say-die’ spirit we thought you might like to come back for more punishment. To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 14 questions before the end of January 2025.  If you can put the word ‘competition’ in your post it will help me to collate…

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Given the dark history of the Royal Family when it comes to coups (King Edward VIII would have been installed as King if the Nazis had invaded and Lord Mountbatten (the current King’s mentor) was touted to become PM if a coup against Harold Wilson succeeded, or Queen Elizabeth II’s disgraceful role in the sacking of Gough Whitlam I can understand why Elon Musk has tweeted this. I do not expect King Charles III to heed Elon Musk’s advice as…

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This poll hasn’t altered my view that laying Kamala Harris for both the Dem nomination and the presidency in 2028 is the way to profit. I think the ratings for the likes of Newsom, Shapiro, and Whitmer will improve the further we get into the primary contests, they make for great trading bets at the moment. TSE

From a political betting perspective 2024 was an epic year, a UK general election, a US presidential election with the incumbent quitting the race in July, a Tory leadership contest, a French legislative election, and the betting on the date of the UK general election which has gotten some people in real trouble. Regretfully 2025 is going to be a fallow year for election betting as the only major bettable* elections are in Germany, Canada, Ireland, and Australia, the latter…

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Best Prime Minister polling is something that has a strong incumbency bias and it is only worth noting when the leader of the opposition starts winning this metric consistently as it usually heralds a change of government What is truly intriguing about this polling is that Nigel Farage leads Kemi Badenoch on this metric which will help Farage as he is trying to set up the next general election as a straight fight between Labour and Reform which would see…

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Yesterday saw the Reform Party claim they had overtaken the Conservative Party’s membership total although Kemi Badenoch has accused Reform of manipulating their figures in a lengthy thread on the social media plaform formerly known as Twitter. As the Tweet by Ben Harris points out there’s no automatcity that having more members leads to electoral victory, just ask Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 and 2019, or the SNP earlier on this year when they were reduced to a single digit number…

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