Let’s talk about shoes
33% of the public scare me, this polling is inspired by Justin Trudeau’s footwear faux pas. Only David Tennant’s Doctor looks good wearing trainers with a suit. TSE
The tip of the iceberg that is the Truss legacy
As the possibility of Nigel Farage winning the next general election increases the narrative will change on what Farage as PM means. It is interesting that Starmer is following the lead of the Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp who has warned that Farage’s economic policies are ‘Liz Truss on steroids‘ I suspect this is something we will be hearing a lot from the traditional big two parties and it will be interesting to see how this polling moves over time….
Scottish subsample watch
There’s been quite a lot of excitement over the latest YouGov poll which has a subsample showing Reform leading in Scotland. This is based on 145 respondents in Scotland, unlike other pollsters YouGov do weight their subsamples but even still the margin of error is just over 8% so nobody should be confident in saying Reform are leading in Scotland. I will need to see full sized Scotland polls from a couple of reputable BPC registered pollsters showing Reform ahead…
Something for Labour to ponder
This polling reminds me why I am so dubious about hypothetical polling. We often see polls like this showing the public favouring higher taxes but that support evaporates once those taxes are increased. TSE
I am prolier than thou
I detest any form of class warfare and it looks like we’re in for an awful lot of it. I suspect Farage’s spin will fail as will Labour’s class warfare, they tried it against David Cameron and Boris Johnson and it failed although it shows prejudice against the privately educated is the last acceptable prejudice in this country. I am strongly of the opinion that people with class do not talk about class TSE
Incumbency bias
As a general rule I am not a fan of best Prime Minister polling because there is a strong incumbency bias, Jim Callaghan led Margaret Thatcher on this metric on election day in 1979. This type of polling is only useful when the an opposition leader takes consistent leads in this poll as it usually presages a change of government however there is something very interesting which will make grim reading for Kemi Badenoch, she is barely beating Nigel Farage…
The latest White House 2028 betting
I still think the value is with Donald Trump Jr given the iron grip his father has on the Republican party. TSE
Saying no to Boris Johnson
From The Telegraph article A shadow Cabinet minister said that they could not think “of a single one” of their colleagues who thought Mr Johnson returning to the Conservative Party fold would be a good thing. Iain Martin, a political columnist, told the Not Another One podcast last week that two Conservatives MPs had made it known they would “not stick around” if Mr Johnson became party leader again. This is great news for those laying Boris Johnson as next Tory leader….