David Cameron really was exceptional, we may not see his like again, since the turn of the millennium other than David Cameron no Tory leader has served more 38 months. No wonder Ladbrokes make it 2/9 that Badenoch will not make it to the next general election, the Tories really do like ditching their leaders this century. TSE
Readers of Popbitch will be aware of the longstanding discussion over who would win a fight between a badger and a baboon but last week the internet came up with a new variation, who would win a fight between 100 unarmed men and a silverback gorilla. I think the 35% who went for the men are utterly deluded. TSE PS – A baboon would easily beat a badger in a fight and I will entertain no further discussion on this…
Although as I noted at the time when the next Pope markets went up this was a market to avoid as it was the epitome of an insiders’ market. TSE
As we saw in last week’s by-election every vote matters and if I were a Labour strategist I would be happy with this polling, I suspect plenty on the centre left will vote tactically to keep out Farage and Reform. I think it would be a mistake to lump the centre-left as one homogenous bloc as it would be to lump the Tories and Reform as one bloc too. TSE
I expect when people realise I am backing the Lib Dems to win the most seats at the next general election some of you will send me links to the Gamble Aware website but my logic is based on this being an excellent (trading) bet for the following reasons. So that’s why I think 50/1 is good trading bet an you can also get around 48/1 on Betfair. TSE
A Westminster insider once observed to me that poll politicians most take notice of is the poll that has them doing the worst as politicians are a glass half empty type of people and this YouGov poll today is a shocker. The Tory party which (in)famously only ever panics in a crisis might soon be having another ‘moment’ if they start ending up behind the Lib Dems and still stuck in the teens. Up until quite recently I thought Kemi…
Whilst the Brexit Party won Wales in the 2019 European elections this Senedd polling is seismic, and if turns out to be true I wonder if Labour finish third or lower then Starmer might quit. Starmer did contemplate quitting after the Hartlepool by-election so Starmer might actually quit after losing Wales, so the 5/1 on him quitting in 2026 offered by Ladbrokes looks tempting. TSE
This polling from More In Common is interesting on several levels. It appears that new Reform supporters are driven by a disillusionment with Labour and the Tories than unequivocally backing every Reform policy enthusiastically. If Labour can display some competence and deliver some improvements they could win back plenty of supporters, with potentially over four years to the next election there’s plenty of time for them to turn it around but so far it appears Labour are trying to prove…