The Rachel effect?
I suspect this is in part due to cost of living going up a lot this month and the government usually gets the blame for this. TSE
I think the public may not be fans of Rachel Reeves
During David Cameron’s tenure as Leader of the Opposition Mike Smithson used to observe that the more David Cameron was on the television more the Tory score in the polls improved and I am wondering if the opposite is true for Rachel Reeves. Pointing out Rachel Reeves is a bit of a duffer is like pointing out Leicester City and Southampton are a bit rubbish at soccer in this season’s Premier League, it’s true but it’s not going to change…
Le Pen is not mightier than the sword of truth
Today’s events have upended expectations for France’s 2027 presidential election but I wonder if the value might be with Le Pen if the appellate process works in her favour. A smidgeon of value might be with Zemmour, or somebody who isn’t listed here, Marion Maréchal of Identity–Liberties who is part of the Le Pen family. TSE PS – This headline was shamelessly stolen from PBer Sunil_Prasannan.
The bookies are now offering odds on Trump winning in 2028/a third term
Both Ladbrokes and William Hill are now offering on odds on Trump winning in 2028 or a third time via presidential election, I think this is a suitable move, as a trading bet at 16/1. I have no confidence in the Supreme Court stopping Trump standing in 2028 and eventually Betfair will have to offer odds on Trump standing/winning in 2028, this and an expectation that elections in 2028 might not be free and fair is why I expect many…
Is inflation the key metric for winning the general election?
The finding published this month from Ipsos at the top us this pieces helps us refine what parts of the economy are key benchmarks for the voters. Abstract concepts such as GDP won’t win elections but inflation and interest rates will. The tweet from Redfield & Wilton from 2023 indicates that the great British public are, to put it kindly, are quite dim* when it comes to inflation, so if inflation does go down the public might not realise it….
Starmer’s improving ratings
This polling from Ipsos isn’t surprising, plenty of us expected Starmer’s statesmanship to see his ratings improve and Farage’s ratings to fall (and Ed Davey’s unambiguous criticisms of Trump would see a boost too.) Longstanding readers know that Ipsos are considered the gold standard when it comes leader ratings and in the head to heads Starmer will be happy that he leads both Farage & Badenoch in the net ratings. The person who should be most worried is Rachel Reeves….
Where do we even start with this?
I know it is early in the morning and I know it is Donald Trump but who exactly will be paying the tariffs? This level of idiocy/economic illiteracy has the potential to give Starmer & Reeves a get out of jail card when it comes to the economy, this time around ‘It started America’ might actually have some credence. TSE
Should we be talking about a Nicola Sturgeon comeback?
After seeing this polling I wonder if Nicola Sturgeon is regretting her announcement about standing down from Holyrood next year. I think Sturgeon will find retirement not all caviar and champagne as there will be regret that on her part that she didn’t make more progress on indyref2 during the optimum time of the Boris Johnson premiership as Scotland was dragged out of the EU against her will. Sadly Betfair are yet to put up their markets on next year’s…