I really have to question Reform’s professionalism, I understand that local election administrative screw ups happen for all parties but who in their right mind thought it was a good idea to use a Jimmy Savile’s slogan for Reform’s campaign? Why did nobody veto it? If Nigel Farage wants to become Prime Minister he needs to avoid screw ups like this? Has Alan Partridge started working for Reform? I had to check this wasn’t some elaborate April Fools’ Day hoax…
After watching Liverpool defeat Everton last night I turned to my phone and saw it was pinging like mad due to Donald Trump’s tariff plans and this polling is actually good for Labour in some respects because success equals performance minus anticipation. I don’t think the British public, like Donald Trump, do not realise how disruptive last night’s announcements would be to the world economy. TSE
TSE
I suspect this is in part due to cost of living going up a lot this month and the government usually gets the blame for this. TSE
During David Cameron’s tenure as Leader of the Opposition Mike Smithson used to observe that the more David Cameron was on the television more the Tory score in the polls improved and I am wondering if the opposite is true for Rachel Reeves. Pointing out Rachel Reeves is a bit of a duffer is like pointing out Leicester City and Southampton are a bit rubbish at soccer in this season’s Premier League, it’s true but it’s not going to change…
Today’s events have upended expectations for France’s 2027 presidential election but I wonder if the value might be with Le Pen if the appellate process works in her favour. A smidgeon of value might be with Zemmour, or somebody who isn’t listed here, Marion Maréchal of Identity–Liberties who is part of the Le Pen family. TSE PS – This headline was shamelessly stolen from PBer Sunil_Prasannan.
Both Ladbrokes and William Hill are now offering on odds on Trump winning in 2028 or a third time via presidential election, I think this is a suitable move, as a trading bet at 16/1. I have no confidence in the Supreme Court stopping Trump standing in 2028 and eventually Betfair will have to offer odds on Trump standing/winning in 2028, this and an expectation that elections in 2028 might not be free and fair is why I expect many…
The finding published this month from Ipsos at the top us this pieces helps us refine what parts of the economy are key benchmarks for the voters. Abstract concepts such as GDP won’t win elections but inflation and interest rates will. The tweet from Redfield & Wilton from 2023 indicates that the great British public are, to put it kindly, are quite dim* when it comes to inflation, so if inflation does go down the public might not realise it….