Browsed by
Month: April 2011

Exactly a year ago today – when politics changed forever

Exactly a year ago today – when politics changed forever

Comments 0 Comment

Without the debates could Labour have hung on? Today is the first anniversary of an event that was to have a profound impact on the 2010 general election and which probably changed British politics forever – the first of the three leaders’ TV debates. It was staged at the Granada studios in Manchester and I was fortunate to have been there – taking part in the post-debate discussion on ITV with Jonathan Dimbleby. We all know the story of what…

Read More Read More

Will UKIP break through in the locals?

Will UKIP break through in the locals?

Comments 0 Comment

Rob Ford looks at the possibilities In a recent post, Mike noted that the Conservatives may be pushing the immigration issue to defend themselves from defections to UKIP. We agree that UKIP pose a real threat to the established parties at this year’s local polls, but UKIP supporters are not merely grumpy old Tory right wingers. In a recent study with Matthew Goodwin (Nottingham) and David Cutts (Manchester), which can be found here I examined the UKIP electorate at the…

Read More Read More

Was immigration the right issue for Dave to raise?

Was immigration the right issue for Dave to raise?

Comments 0 Comment

Ipsos-MORI MORI has concern about it dropping to a 9 year low On a day when the big political story has been Dave’s immigration speech and the attack upon it from Vince one of my favourite monthly polls is just out – the Ipsos-MORI issues index which has been asked in the same form for more than three decades. In the latest poll just 17% of those taking part said “race relations/immigration” – a drop of nine points since March…

Read More Read More

How valid is the YouGov 58% YES poll?

How valid is the YouGov 58% YES poll?

Comments 0 Comment

Did previous questions influence the referendum finding? There’s a new AV poll from YouGov just out that was commissioned by the Institute for Public Policy Research and has findings that are very different from other recent surveys from the online pollster. After re-percentaging so that only decided voters are included the survey found YES ahead by 58% to 42% – a lead of sixteen points. This compares with the most recent YouGov AV poll that has NO 8% ahead. What…

Read More Read More

Will raising immigration stop the seepage of votes to UKIP?

Will raising immigration stop the seepage of votes to UKIP?

Comments 0 Comment

Has Dave decided on a core votes strategy? With three weeks to go before the May 5th elections David Cameron is getting big headlines this morning over a speech that he’ll make on immigration. This marks a big change from last year’s general election when the main parties sought, each for their own reasons, to side-step the issue even though it generally ranks as one of the public’s main concerns. So what’s prompted today’s move in which he will attack…

Read More Read More

Does Dave’s 2009 speech rank alongside Clegg’s pledge on fees?

Does Dave’s 2009 speech rank alongside Clegg’s pledge on fees?

Comments 0 Comment

It’s so easy to please when you are in opposition Some smart cookie has dug up this clip from April 2009 of Cameron getting rapturous applause from the Royal College of Nursing conference. His talk then of “pointless reorganisations” of the NHS that “then bring chaos” certainly got a great response delegates two years ago but then, like when Clegg made his pledge on student fees, they were in opposition. The world is so much different now they are in…

Read More Read More

REMINDER: London Event on Monday evening

REMINDER: London Event on Monday evening

Comments 0 Comment

Hope you can make the next PB gathering Thanks to Fat Steve for once again organising this. The next informal PB get-together is for the fourth time at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station. It’s on Monday – kick off is at 6pm. Earlier, at 4pm, a number of PBers are gathering at the Guildhall Gallery about ten minutes walk away where Marf, the site’s cartoonist, has an exhibition including a number of…

Read More Read More

Could the LDs really contain vote losses to just 2pc?

Could the LDs really contain vote losses to just 2pc?

Comments 0 Comment

Do by-elections point to a less bad night on May 5th? One of the most surprising sets of data presented by Professors Rallings and Thrasher at the Political Studies Association seminar on the May 5th local elections is featured above. For a decade and more the two political scientists have produced a national equivalent vote share projection based on each set of local election results. In 2007, when most of the seats being contested this year were last up, the…

Read More Read More