Poll Date CON LAB LD LEAD YouGov/Sun 14/09/10 40 39 12 1 YouGov/Sun 13/09/10 41 38 12 3 YouGov/Sunday Times 10/09/10 42 38 14 4 YouGov/Sun 09/09/10 42 37 14 5 YouGov/Sun 08/09/10 43 38 12 5 YouGov/Sun 07/09/10 42 38 13 4 YouGov/Sun 06/09/10 42 37 13 5 YouGov/Sunday Times 03/09/10 42 37 12 5 YouGov/Sun 02/09/10 42 37 12 5 YouGov/Sun 01/09/10 43 37 12 6 YouGov/Sun 31/08/10 43 38 11 5 YouGov/Sunday Times 27/08/10 41 37 13…
Has the FT’s George Parker got this one right? I’ve just caught up with a perceptive piece by the FT’s George Parker on the Labour leadership race. He goes through the merits and shortcomings of the contenders and then concludes:- “.. David is the choice of those at the top of the party, who are keen to return to power. Alone, he has talked about rebuilding the coalition that won the party three election victories from 1997. His handicap is…
BBC What does he do about the 1981 LAB>SDP defectors? Whenever there are problems within the Lib Dem side of the coalition then invariably the names that crop up are Bob Russell, the Colchester MP, and Mike Hancock of Portsmouth South. For these two alongside Business Secretary, Vince Cable, have several things in common notably that they are all in their mid-60s and they were all active Labour politicians who in 1981/82 defected to the new Social Democratic Party –…
What will the new leader do to the polls? Last night on the thread the former Labour MP, Nick Palmer, was offering a wager that his party would be ahead in the polls by the end of the month. I don’t know whether there were any takers but his reasoning was faultless. The result of the leadership election will be announced a week on Saturday – on the first day of the party’s conference. All eyes will then be on…
Are his supporters more likely to have voted? Some key detail has come out this evening from the YouGov labour leadership poll which suggests that EdM’s position is even better than the top-line figures suggested. The detailed data breaks responses down in both the party member and trade unionists sections according to whether respondents had already voted or not. About 40% had already cast their ballots and of these in both sections Ed Miliband was doing far better than amongst…
SkyNews Could we see disruption on a massive scale? By comparison with the 70s and 80s modern industrial action has had relatively little impact on the lives of the public – with the possible exception of London tube passengers and some people flying BA. What’s made an impression on me in the past year is how difficult it’s been for some unions to make their action effective. BA managed to operate a significant proportion of its flights during the recent…
Betfair Politics What else could change the betting in the next 11 days? With just a week and a half to go before the Labour leadership race comes to an end there’ve been big moves in the betting following the Sunday Times YouGov poll of members and trade unionists suggesting that the younger Miliband brother has moved into a small lead. On Saturday evening before the news came out the EdM price on Betfair was 4/1. That’s moved in to…
Stuart Dickson previews next Sunday’s election in Sweden Are the Swedish Social Democrats, the most successful labour party in the world, about to have their worst general election since 1908? As an undergraduate studying economics at Strathclyde University in the late 80s, I can remember our lecturers spending time on expositions of the Middle Way between capitalism and communism, exemplified by the Swedish Model or Folkhemmet (The Peoples’ Home). At that time of my life I thought of myself as…