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Month: September 2010

Is the Boles plan the fox that can Clegg shoot?

Is the Boles plan the fox that can Clegg shoot?

Was it designed to make Nick’s conference easier? What’s likely to produce the loudest applause during Nick Clegg’s big speech this afternoon will be when he makes clear that the coalition deal is for one parliament only and that there will be no pact with the Tories at the next election. For the prospect that something might just be on the agenda has been simmering since last Monday following the publication of a book in which the idea is floated…

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Sweden 2010 – Election Night

Sweden 2010 – Election Night

Dagens Nyheter Are the Social Democrats heading for a historic defeat? Today’s election in Sweden looks set to see the return of a centre-right government for the first time in decades, perhaps alongside the Social Democrats failing to top the poll for the first time in about a century. A possible fly in the ointment for a Reinfeldt second term is the rightwing Sweden Democrats breaking the 4% threhsold to secure seats in the Riksdag. If you haven’t already read…

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Anybody tempted by these bets?

Anybody tempted by these bets?

Market Odds Nick Clegg to be next PM 20/1 Nick Clegg to join Tories before next election 10/1 Nick Clegg NOT to be leader at 2011 Conference 5/1 2+ LD MPs to form breakaway party before next election 10/1 Or are they just Ladbrokes fund-raising schemes? Ever keen to find new ways to tempt us to part with our money Ladbrokes have put up the above range of market. I’d like a price on the eventuality of none of them…

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Could Cameron really have side-stepped the debates?

Could Cameron really have side-stepped the debates?

Telegraph Is Ashcroft naive to think that this was an option? The Sunday Telegraph is leading with details of the strong attack on the way Cameron and his team handled the election campaign in a report from controversial Tory donor, Michael Ashcroft, which is being published this week. Given the way that his party’s double digit poll lead disappeared from Christmas 2009 onwards there is a lot in what he says about message and tactics. But from paper’s report Ashcroft…

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The Labour betting heads for 60-40

The Labour betting heads for 60-40

Betfair Politics Could there be a cross-over? The chart shows the Betfair prices, expressed as percentages, on what’s happening in the Labour race in which voting finishes on Wednesday at 5pm. I don’t think we’ll see another YouGov poll though it’s possible that one might have been commissioned. The moves over the past week have been driven by last Saturday’s survey for the Sunday Times. William Hill has reported that four out of every five bets it has laid on…

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Is now the time to back Palin?

Is now the time to back Palin?

Do the 2010 primaries give her hope to make it all the way? This time next year, we’ll be well into the pre-primary season across the Atlantic and from the midterms so far, it’s shaping up to be a fascinating contest, with the Tea Party shaking up any number of races. Without getting too far into the detail, the scale of the inroads the Tea Party has made against incumbent politicians has been impressive. While a lot of the media…

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Harry Hayfield’s local by election round-up

Harry Hayfield’s local by election round-up

By elections since GE Defended Held Gain Lost Now CON 37 21 5 16 26 LAB 25 22 12 3 35 LD 17 12 10 5 22 OTH 13 8 1 5 9 Elections held on September 16 2010 Name of ward: Park Local Authority: Knowsley Electoral Region: North West England Labour 650 votes (86.0% +6.1% on May 2010) Liberal Democrats 70 votes (9.3% -10.8% on May 2010) Conservatives 36 votes (4.8% did not contest in May 2010) Labour HOLD…

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Does Labour always recover quickly from defeat?

Does Labour always recover quickly from defeat?

Election/Poll TORIES LABOUR LIBERAL Tories come to power 1951 48 48.8 2.5 Gallup after 6 months 41 48 9 Tories come to power 1970 46.4 43 7.5 Gallup after 6 months 42 47 8 Tories come to power 1979 43.9 36.9 13.8 Gallup after 6 months 39 43 15 Coalition comes to power 2010 37 29.7 23.6 MORI after five months 37 37 15 Is too much being read into the latest polls? Thanks to Professor Phil Cowley of Nottingham…

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