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Donald Trump is a transformative politician, he’s influenced elections in Canada and Australia in 2025 when the 1/10 favourite Conservatives lost the general election thanks to Donald Trump’s actions, it got so bad their leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat, in Australia Trump’s interventions were felt to be a gamechanger. The next Danish general election has to be held no later than the 31st of October of this year and it is no surprise that Trump’s behaviour has shifted votes….

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Other than a small bet on the Greens I will be avoid betting much on this by-election until I know who the Labour candidate is and if it isn’t Andy Burnham then why isn’t Andy Bunrham. Was it a decision made by himself or down to some lawyerly chicanery by Sir Keir Starmer to prevent Burnham from standing? Plus the winner might not be listed by Ladbrokes at the moment. Ironically both a Burnham victory or a Polanski victory would…

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This story from Politics Home is interesting simply because the desperation of Sir Keir Starmer and his allies. They really do fear being ousted if Andy Burnham becomes an MP as evidenced by hyperbole in the final line in the third Tweet. I’d remind everybody that Andy Burnham has run for the Labour leadership twice and lost both times, first time he finished behind both Miliband brothers which does not imply a brilliant leader in waiting. Let him stand I…

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I have been advising laying Andy Burnham to succeed Sir Keir Starmer mostly on the grounds that he’s not an MP and he cannot double job as Mayor of Greater Manchester, and that there’s no certainty he’d win a by-election. It is expected this by-election will take place to coincide with the locals in May. I still think there’s also the chance that Sir Keir Starmer insists that the by-election has an all-women shortlist. But right now I would advise…

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Last March I tipped Mark Kelly for the Presidency at 100s on Betfair because I think he is an impressive person with a compelling backstory. He seems very impressive on the occasions I have seen him. He’s also earned the ire of the Trump administration which should help him. He’s currently 90s on Betfair and I think that represents stonking value considering he’s 8s from the Democratic Party nomination. TSE

TSE

The video starts at 7 mins and 20 seconds and Prime Minister Carney starts speaking at 9 mins and 48 seconds. Mark Carney is certainly more impressive than any elected politician the UK currently has. TSE

There’s plenty enough for both Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch to be happy but long term I think Nigel Farage will be the most happy. TSE