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Reports say the EU referendum could be held as early as next April

September 1st, 2015

On the day Cameron accepted the electoral commission suggestion to change the wording of the EU referendum question, and UKIP turned the OUT movement into a modern day equivalent of the People’s Front for Judea versus the Judean People’s Front, this is probably the most interesting news of the day. It may be an indication that Cameron isn’t as confident of winning the referendum as the polls currently suggest, hence the early date.

TSE




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Predict the winner and first round shares in the LAB leadership ELECTION in PB’s prize competition

September 1st, 2015

The closest will get a £100 free bet from William Hill

Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter vote shares down to decimal points for four contenders as well as naming the overall winner of the election. The prize will go to the person with the smallest overall error who has correctly named the winner.

I am delighted to announce that William Hill has agreed to provide a competition prize of a free £100 bet. If the winner does not have an account then he/she will have to open one to receive the prize. This is only open to people over the age of 18.

Al the entries can be seen here. As usual I am in my absolute discretion the total arbiter of all matters relating to the competition. Entries close on Thursday at 10pm.

Click on the menu to check what others are doing and the overall summary prediction.

Thanks to Mark Hopkins for creating the competition widget.

Best of luck.

Mike Smithson





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September opens with Corbyn continuing to dominate the Lab betting but with a little bit more interest in Cooper

September 1st, 2015

Eight more days before voting closes

The LAB leadership Betting has been pretty stable since the YouGov poll last month that had Corbyn on 55% on first preferences. Inevitably he’s become the overwhelming favourite as can be seen by the chart.

The only recent movement has been with Yvette Cooper who was out as a 5% chance last week and had seen a tightening. At the same time there has been a slight easing of the Corbyn price from a dominating 81% implied probability to a 78% one.

It is easy to read too much into these minor adjustments but the shift a bit to Cooper seems to have happened since the Gordon Brown endorsement. Whether the former prime minister has any remaining influence is hard to say.

What we haven’t got any information on is when people voted. The general theory is that voters in elections by mail get their ballot packs into the post very quickly and Corbyn was riding very high when the these started being distributed on August 12th.

There was an unsourced report at the start of last week that 40% of the selectorate then had not voted – a figure that seemed very high. Maybe the fact that voting is taking place during the main holiday season has had an impact.

My betting position remains the same. I’m all green across the board making the same profit whoever is announced as winner a week on Saturday.

Mike Smithson





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Now most LAB leadership votes are in Osborne moves to undermine the likely winner

August 31st, 2015

The Tory attack on Corbyn and his party has begun

For the last four months the Tories have been almost totally disciplined about the LAB leadership election. There’ve been virtually no comments whatsoever in public until now. Today, with George Osborne’s Faslane announcement things have changed.

This is Andrew Sparrow in the Guardian:

“Osborne is keenly aware that a new leader saddled with a negative image from the beginning will find it hard to escape such framing. As such, the Faslane visit can be seen as the first step in a Tory operation to define Corbyn as a peacenik security risk.

If the Islington North MP does win, as the polls suggest, the Tory onslaught will go much wider, covering vast tracts of his policy agenda. But Corbyn’s unilateralism is a particularly attractive target for the Tories because a large number of Labour MPs strongly support the nuclear deterrent and would probably defy the whip if ordered to vote against its renewal…”

Osborne, who has moved strongly to become next CON leader betting favourite, has started the GE2020 campaign already.

Mike Smithson





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The big LAB leadership news is the Sun report that Corbyn described the death of Osama Bin Laden as a “tragedy”

August 31st, 2015

A taste of what a Corbyn led LAB could expect in the run up to GE2020?



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Hills starting taking bets on when we’ll see the likes of this again – LAB winning a majority

August 30th, 2015

pic
The Exit poll. 10pm May 5th 2005

Will Corbyn make the red-team unelectable?

AS JEREMY CORBYN’s LAB leader odds are cut to their shortest yet at 2/9 (stake £9 for potential £2 profit) by William Hill, the bookies have also opened a market on when Labour will next achieve an overall majority government – and make between 2026-30 their 5/2 favourite – offering just 3/1 that it will not happen before 2031.

Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe said ‘With so many Labour figures predicting that a Corbyn victory could make the Party unelectable, we decided to start betting on just when the next Labour government will take office, and we don’t see it happening any time soon -probably not for at least fifteen years, in fact’.

Certainly it is hard to see this happening very soon and with the likely permanent loss of most of what were its Scottish strongholds it is hard to see the party recovering to win an overall majority.

As to the bet I can’t see the point of locking up cash for so long.

Mike Smithson





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Iowa shock for Hillary Clinton as the state’s most accurate pollster has her caucus lead down to just 7%

August 30th, 2015

If she looks vulnerable it could open up the whole race

In the next five months we are going to hear an awful lot from Iowa which traditionally, with its caucuses, is the first state to decide on choosing a contender for the White House race.

Because this is not a normal primary where people just turn up and vote finding accurate poll samples has proved very challenging in the past. What happens in Iowa is that electors attending attend evening meetings on a cold January/February evening and only those who arrive on time and stay to the end can cast a vote.

The vast majority of people in the state simply don’t attend these events so standard polling techniques do not always work. But the poll in the states’s leading newspaper, the Des Moines Register, has over the years built up a formidable reputation in surveying both the Republican and Democratic party caucuses. In 2012 it identified the huge momentum behind Rick Santorum in the GOP race and he, nor Romney, was eventually declared the winner.

The early states to decide can have an enormous impact and there’s a massive focus on what’s going. The contenders are spending huge amounts of time and effort in them. It was Obama’s success in Iowa in 2008 that provided the springboard for his successful White House bid.

    It had been thought that Hillary would take Iowa easily but would struggle against the 73 year old socialist, Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire. That thinking has changed dramatically overnight with the Des Moines Register poll which shows him closing the gap.

My reading is that Sanders is doing well because he’s the most established non-Hillary contender.

Clinton’s price has been weakening but she’s still a strong odds-on favourite for the nomination. If a serious other contender emerges she could be in trouble.

Mike Smithson





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In a strange land

August 29th, 2015

UK Border

Antifrank looks at The politics of immigration and asylum

“Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.”  These are words which find absolutely no purchase in Britain in 2015.  Fully 50% this month see immigration as one of the three most important issues facing Britain in Ipsos MORI’s regular poll for the Economist and it’s a safe bet that few of them are concerned that Britain isn’t getting enough foreigners.

Proving anything with statistics

If one were just to look at statistics, it isn’t immediately obvious why this should be such a high concern right now.  From the most recent figures available, net immigration appears to have risen (for the year to March 2015 it was estimated at 330,000).  This is a record high, but not out of all proportion with previous years:

Immigration

It certainly doesn’t account for the recent jumps in the level of concern currently being expressed (only 34% named immigration as one of the three most important issues facing Britain as recently as January).  And it doesn’t seem to be a matter of personal experience.  For example, 47% of the Welsh named immigration as the single most important issue facing Britain today but barely one in twenty Welsh residents are not British citizens.

Asylum seekers are broadly static according to the latest figures, just under 26,000 for the year to June 2015, up 10% on the previous year but far lower than the 84,000 in 2012.  Decisions on these applications are speeding up, running at three times the rate of a year ago.  Nor are they being waved through – the refusal rate for initial decisions for the first quarter of this year (64%) is almost exactly the same as it was in the first quarter of 2014.  Only applications from Eritrea, Iran, Syria and Sudan are normally succeeding.  Appeals are also running at a steady 66% dismissal rate.

 

Migrating anxiety

So why are the public so worked up about the subject?  In short, the media.  This year we have been treated to many pictures of boatloads of migrants crossing the Mediterranean and the Aegean and to blood-curdling accounts of throngs of migrants at Calais (and consequent disruption to Channel Tunnel services).  News has percolated back of the wall that the Hungarians are erecting on their Serbian border.  More recently, we have seen chaos on the Greek/Macedonian border.  The British public are concluding, correctly, that Europe is seeing an unprecedented wave of asylum-seeking and believe, incorrectly, that Britain is in the frontline of this.  With this conclusion floating on top of a general sense that Britain does not have a grip on more general types of immigration, the public fear the worst.

This sense is remarkably pervasive in some groups.  47% of over 65 year olds and 47% of red top readers named immigration as the single most important issue facing Britain today.  66% of Conservative voters and 82% of UKIP voters named it as one of the top three most important issues facing Britain today.  Make no mistake, having a clear policy on immigration that commands public confidence is going to be vital for all political parties in this Parliament.  So far none of the parties seem to have come anywhere near giving the public confidence in their policies.

In this respect, the British public are remarkably European (though with far less justification than much of their fellow EU citizens).  Britain is mid-table in the EU in terms of the percentage of residents who are citizens of other countries and Britain is now accepting around just 4% of new asylum applications in the EU.  Hungary detained as many migrants in a day this week as Britain this year has been averaging for asylum applications in a month.  50,000 arrived in Greece in July alone.  Germany is expecting 800,000 asylum applications this year.  These numbers give some context to the British immigration figures cited above.

This pressure on the EU is not likely to subside any time soon and the UN is urging EU member states to share the burden equitably.  Jean-Claude Juncker is also looking for an EU-wide solution (he might have better luck if he didn’t gratuitously insult the Prime Minister of one of the countries whose co-operation he is now seeking).

So Britain is going to come under renewed pressure from the rest of the EU to take more asylum seekers.  This is unlikely to go down well at home, to put it mildly.

Staying a step ahead

The Prime Minister has a short term problem of calming public fears, which are mostly unjustified.  He has a medium term problem that the EU is going to be pressuring Britain to take far more asylum seekers, which most British people see no justification for.  And he has a long term problem that he has no clear public message to give about the level of immigration that Britain can expect and deal with, nor of how to stem the influx into Europe of refugees.  Right now, he does not obviously have a plan to deal with any of these.

Against this background, you would expect the Conservatives to be suffering in the polls.  Far from it.  Labour take a more pro-immigration approach than the Conservatives, so are poorly placed to benefit (Jeremy Corbyn believes that migration is a “global phenomenon” and that non-EU immigration into the UK “is mainly family reunion issues”).  Despite UKIP having majored heavily on immigration control, UKIP’s poll ratings haven’t flickered in the last few weeks: perhaps Nigel Farage’s post-election antics have put some off; more likely, UKIP’s absence from the airwaves has left voters not making the connection between their concern about immigration and UKIP.

In the absence of any meaningful opposition, the Conservatives’ poll ratings are buoyant.  This will not last if the public conclude that they are out of their depth on what they regard as the number one issue confronting Britain.  Anti-immigrant parties of different degrees of nativism have been polling well in countries as diverse as France, Sweden, Hungary and Denmark.  With UKIP angling to fill that space in Britain, the Conservatives probably only have a short breathing space.

How should they use it?  Their great difficulty is that the Prime Minister’s past commitments on immigration have been comprehensively broken so his word is going to be disbelieved by many on this subject.  So they need to concentrate on actions rather than words.  The increased urgency at an EU level could assist the Prime Minister.  If he can get substantive movement on intra-EU migration, he may well be inclined to agree to take more asylum-seekers (he could triple the annual number and still Britain would have fewer asylum seekers than it had in 2012).  But the progress would need to be in that order to make it saleable to the British public.  And it assumes that David Cameron is looking for substantive change of the EU rather than something cosmetic.

That would probably see David Cameron’s term as Prime Minister out.  If he does not achieve something on this front, he could rapidly find his second term unravelling.  He tends to get tripped up by subjects that he’d not been focussing on.  This could be his downfall.

In the long term, the EU is certain to continue to face a continual trail of huddled masses.  This is not a function of the world becoming more disordered (the opposite is true) but of increased mobility, enabling wealthier asylum seekers and economic migrants to seek out their preferred destination to make a new life.  They cannot be blamed on an individual level – we would probably do the same ourselves in their shoes – but the social consequences and the levels of asylum seekers and migration that we and our European neighbours can live with as a society will need to be addressed and readdressed for many years.  This is a discussion that has barely started in Britain.

Antifrank