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New Democrat nominee polling finds Warren’s generates the most enthusiasm

September 19th, 2019

 

 

In general almost all the Democratic nominee polling that we’ve seen this year has had 76 year old Joe Biden in the lead. This has been a been underpinned by the findings that he’s seen as the one most likely to beat Trump.  Even so it is being suggested that his position is not as strong as it might appear.

The growing doubts about the former VP are basically because of ongoing gaffes, his age and little things that underline that like talking about young people and record players in the last debate. He finds it increasingly difficult to keep on topic when responding to questions and meanders.

It is in this context that HuffPost has commissioned the above polling asking about enthusiasm for each contenders rather than voting intentions.  Those sampled were asked to to give their level of enthusiasm for the long list of people still in the race and how upset people would be in relation to each of them

The findings are in the table above and as can be seen Elizabeth Warren tops this table with  Biden coming in third place because 25% say they would be upset if he got the nomination.

I think the questions that hang over Joe will continue and polling like this is not going to help.

Mike Smithson





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Ipsos-MORI has the LDs at a post-GE2010 high with a big increase in awareness of Joe Swinson if not her net satisfaction figures

September 19th, 2019

At the Euro elections in May two pollsters stood out for the accuracy of the final polls – YouGov and Ipsos MORI. These were the only ones to have all the parties in the right order and were also pretty close with most of the final shares. They compared very well to the final results of all the other pollsters which did pretty badly.

As can be seen in Keiran’s Tweet the Lib Dems see an increase of 3% putting them on the the highest level, as David Herdson has Tweeted, since the final poll before GE2010.

Although Swinson’s net satisfaction is down the big change is in those having an opinion about her. A former regular PBer who used to follow leader ratings closely, Rod S, always maintained that the negative numbers were irrelevant – what mattered was the percentage giving positive rating

Given that we could be within in a couple of months of a general election the pollsters appear to be gearing up. I’ve just completed an Opinium survey that wanted to know my constituency and what I would do given, as the questionnaire said, this would be a battle between LAB and CON.

I’m not sure that this is right. The LDs have the elected Mayor and in the locals in May the Tories failed to win a council seat within the constituency that they held until GE2017.

Mike Smithson


 



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The first full poll after Swinson’s Brexit gamble sees the LDs up 4 ahead of LAB into second place

September 19th, 2019

Today’s YouGov: Con 32%= LD 23+4 Lab 21-2 BXP 14=

There is a new YouGov poll in the Times this morning which is the first one to have taken place since the Lib Dems at their conference voted to stop Brexit even without a referendum.

The figures are above and will give a lot of reassurance to the new Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, with what has been widely criticised as a massive gamble in terms of policy. It has however got her really noticed in the media something that the LDs have struggled to get since GE2015.

Before the yellows get too over excited I should post a note of caution about political polling during conference season. Generally there is a tendency for whichever party has been up last in the conference cycle to get a boost and really we don’t know what the full picture will be until mid October.

Having said that the party that will be most concerned about this latest move, particularly if it is supported by other pollsters, will be Labour. Boris Johnson’s Tories have now fully established themselves as the party for Brexit with Jo Swinson party appearing to be overwhelmingly the party that is opposed.  Given that this is the biggest issue of the day it is hard to see where LAB stands and its equivocal position might be hard to defend in a general election campaign.

I think the LDs are benefitting from having total clarity on the overwhelming  big issue of the moment and are also helped by having a new, young (Swinson’s 39) and female leader. This is in sharp contrast to Labour who are stuck with a leader whose been around a longish time, has personal ratings that are amongst the worst ever recorded for an opposition leader and whose ambiguity on Brexit looks set to be hard to defend in an early general election campaign.

How LAB responds to the LD tanks on its lawn will dominate the upcoming Labour conference. I’d argue that the more Swinson gets attacked by LAB the better it is for her.

Mike Smithson


 



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If Johnson is to fight a successful election campaign he needs to cope with situations like this better

September 18th, 2019

First mistake: Denying it was a press event when it was blindingly obvious it was

Mike Smithson


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Latest YouGov favourability polling shows the enormous mountain that Corbyn has to scale

September 18th, 2019

It was 3 years ago that YouGov began issuing leader favourability ratings a move that followed suggestions from me. I’ve long been in the leader ratings matter much more than voting intention numbers camp and the format I most like is when poll samples are asked whether they favour a particular political leader or not.

The numbers for Johnson speak for themselves and the biggest electoral pointer, surely, is how Corbyn is currently perceived. That 70% view the LAB leader unfavourably is hardly a good starting point if there is an early general election campaign.

I know LAB supporters will point to the incredible recovery that the party saw at GE17 but they can’t have any certainty that that will be replicated. Corbyn’s numbers started to slip following the antisemitism row and haven’t shown any sign of recovery.

One real concern for the Labour Party is that although Swinson is new to the LD leader’s job the numbers show that in net terms she is looked on more favourably by GE2017 LAB voters than Corbyn is.

He is on net minus 6% from those who voted LAB last time while Swinson is on a net plus 10%.

Johnson, for all his apparent parliamentary troubles sees his numbers advance doing particularly well amongst Leavers and CON voters.

Mike Smithson


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In the General Election betting a CON majority drops from a 40%+ chance to a 29% one since MPs returned after the summer recess

September 18th, 2019

What happened when MPs took back control

Until the afternoon of Tuesday September 3rd everything had been going well for Cummings and Johnson. The proroguement of Parliament cutting down the numbers of days before the October Brexit deadline when Johnson and his team would be subject to parliamentary scrutiny had been drastically slashed and all seemed on target.

Then MPs moved to take control of the Commons agenda allowing the Benn bill to go through – a measure designed to tie Johnson’s hands.

We then saw 21 Tory MPs, including several former cabinet members expelled from the party instantly losing the Tory majority.

It is in this context that the betting moved against a Tory majority on the Betfair exchange.

This has been partly down to closer examination of the Commons arithmetic. To win a majority Johnson needs to do better than TMay at GE17 while likely losing a bunch of seats to the SNP and the resurgent LDs.

Where are the Labour seats for the Tories to win to offset the losses and more? This is harder to see

Mike Smithson


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Once again political gamblers have been overstating the chances of an early general election

September 17th, 2019

Chart via the betdata.io

The favourite month has gone from September to October to November to December and now 2020

For decades or as long as I have been political betting one of the characteristics of political gamblers is that they overstate the chances of an early General Election being called. Somehow it is always easier to make the case in your own head that one is going to happen soon than that it probably won’t.

So over the past few weeks like other PBers I have been laying, betting against the current favourite month in 2019 and hopefully will make a nice profit.

A key factor to remember now is that under a statute that was enacted in 2013 the minimum campaign period for a general electio was laid as down 25 working days. Clearly from the betting quite a lot of punters are not fully aware of the implications of this.

On top of that it is useful to have at the back of your mind the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliament Act for how an election is called as a result of a vote of no confidence in the government. Once that has been decided there is a period of 14 days for it shall come into operation.

When the act first came into being and certainly for the years that followed the general view has been that this made no difference to the prime minister’s ability to call an election. Even though two-thirds of all MPs have to vote for one the view has always been, until this month, that the opposition leader would have to fall in line.

That, of course, is what Corbyn didn’t do two weeks ago and it is arguable that he is the one who will determine the election date rather than Mr Johnson.

Mike Smithson


 



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Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics and it is hard to predict what’ll happen

September 17th, 2019


When I went on my holiday two and a half weeks ago TSE and others made a big deal about this being an occasion when big political stories seem to break. Well that the events of the last two and a half weeks have more than proved that theory.

Well I’m now heading back overland from Andalusia after my holiday in the Osborne (no relation) sherry town of El Puerto de Santa María and will be back in the UK on Wednesday.

However you look at it the final day of October is going to be an extraordinary day in British politics. Even if the EU issue has been resolved by then, which I doubt, this will still mark the end of the, at times, controversial Speakersrship of ex-CON MP John Bercow.

Chances are, though, that the EU exit won’t have been resolved and there could be a mighty battle going on whether Johnson, if he’s still PM then, has sent the letter to the EU asking for an extension of the Article 50 process as he is required to do by law.

It might be, of course, that Johnson has been able to agree a revised version of TMay’s deal with the EU and that that has been approved by the House of Commons. It is the latter which I find hard to envisage. The anti-Brexiteers have got their tails up, there is increasing talk of not just another referendum but revoking Article 50. If that happens those that blocked TMay in the spring are going to feel a bit sick.

It might be as well, that Johnson has decided to defy the law that was passed earlier in the month and not sent the letter. In which case we can expect a mighty legal battle going on with the prospect of him being injuncted and then maybe even going to prison.

All this is without today’s hyped ruling by the Supreme Court on the legality of the prorogation.

So many things are possible and in the current environment nothing should be ruled out.

Mike Smithson