Ukip drop to 13%

The latest YouGov daily poll is out and sees the Tories still in the doldrums below the 30 mark. The comparisons in the chart above are with a week ago which was before the reported “swivel eyed loons” that a senior CON figure was said to have made about party activists.

The firm has tended to show show better than average figures for the Tories and today’s numbers suggest that the bad press they’ve been having is continuing to have an impact.

The Ukip figure, from a pollster that has been recording lower shares, is down at 13%. My view is that YouGov’s lack of a turnout weighting is the main factor why it can appear to be out of line.

Mike Smithson

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Whitwell on Bolsover

Last Local Election 2011: Lab 32, Ind 4, Green 1 (Labour majority of 25)

To view the result in 2011 please visit http://s3.datawrapper.de/BIZMe/

Dennis Skinner MP (Lab, Bolsover) has become as much of the Parliamentary Estate as Black Rod and the Speaker. Famed for his comments at each State Opening, is it any wonder that he has been named the “Beast of Bolsover” and was even immortalised in the CBBC comedy drama “Maid Marian and Her Merry Men” when the Beast of Bolsover (and his companion the “Nuisance of Nuneaton”) came into Worksop to make trouble. Whether it is Mr. Skinner’s parliamentary antics that help re-elect him each time or the solid hold on Bolsover by Labour is tricky to tell, but Labour’s hold on Bolsover is near total. In the 2003 local elections only six seats did not elect a Labour councillor, that figure increased to ten in 2007 (thanks in part to the decline in the Labour vote at Tony Blair’s last set of local elections), but normal service was resumed in 2011 when only five seats did not elect a Labour councillor, however as we have seen in the past having a virtual one party state does not mean that Labour can rest on their laurels (especially in a ward with a strong Ratepayer vote)

This will give you hours of psephological fun!

Biteback has generously agreed to give copy of the latest volume by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, called “British Electoral Facts 1832-2012″ as a PB competition prize.

The book is an amazing treasure trove and my copy sits almost permanently on my desk.

All you have to do is guess the CON and Ukip shares in the June Guardian ICM poll.

The closest forecast will win.

As with all PB competitions my rulings are final.

Use the thread below to make your entry.

Mike Smithson

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Follow @MSmithsonPB

Thursday’s Sun front page – “We killed this British soldier. It’s an eye for an eye” #tomorrowspaperstoday #Woolwich twitter.com/suttonnick/sta…

— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) May 22, 2013

This is the opportunity for Cameron to rise to the occasion. Will he?

— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 23, 2013

PaddyPower CON leadership challenge prices. bit.ly/I8PkIOSee twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2013

Your chance to predict to vote share

How many seats will they win?

If the coalition is to end prematurely then it won’t be because the LDs quit. Clegg response.goo.gl/FRdUp twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

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Tories are being told: There’ll be no supply & confidence

In a speech this morning Nick Clegg’s making it very clear that his party will not quit the coalition ahead of the general election.

So the blues factions who would like to see the arrangement ending prior to 2015 have got a problem. For Clegg is clearly not going to provide a supply and confidence arrangement should the Tories break the deal unilaterally.

As I have suggested before this means that the only way that the blues can get rid of the yellows is by risking an early general election. I don’t think that while Labour is ahead in the polls that that is going to happen.

The one alternative scenario I can envisage is Cameron being ditched as CON leader and his replacement, Hammond perhaps, getting a polling honeymoon.

If there was a change at the top then I think that that is likely. Whenever the Conservatives have booted out a leader they’ve had a boost in the polls.

The now loveless marriage has got another 23 months to go.

Mike Smithson

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Follow @MSmithsonPB

Yes

Ukip edge up 2

The changes are on the previous daily poll.

After last night’s different pictures from the YouGov and Survation polls the latest one from the former, just published, sees the blues drop sharply and Ukip rising 2.

The fall in the CON share of 4% is greater than the margin of error and this is either an outlier or an indication that we are seeing a new trend developing.

The general theory is that voters punish parties that appear split and that’s the message that has been coming over in the past three or four days.

The critical thing is how these polls impact on the current narrative and the mood of the parliamentary Conservative party

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB