It could be that GE2015 is determined by Scottish IndyRef NO voters who are currently undecided about GE15December 22nd, 2014
Chart showing how many more IndyRef NO voters than YES ones are still undecided about GE15 pic.twitter.com/T7yWQBQKpa
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 22, 2014
The above stats are tucked on one of the spreadsheets for the latest Scottish poll from Survation for the Daily Record.
What is striking is the very different don’t know levels on Westminster voting intention between those who voted YES in the referendum and those who VOTED NO.
My reading is that a significant proportion of these DKs are possibly considering tactical voting. Do they support the party in their constituency which is most likely to stop the SNP or do they follow their normal party allegiance?
It has been a pointer in the past that high level of tactical voting are seen amongst segments of the electorate who say don’t know to the voting question. It’s likely will be in the heat of the election in the final few days, I guess, when they come to their decisions.
The proportion of 1 in 5 of the NO voters from last September is a very significant part of the Scottish electorate. Do they stick with their normal allegiance or do they try to stop a party they do not want to get elected?
That is the classic tactical dilemma for a lot of voters and my guess is that we will see more such voting at next May than ever before.
In many ways a lot depends on how the SNP and the moves on greater devolution are perceived in the coming months.