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The GE2015 seat split based on the latest PaddyPower line betting

July 31st, 2014

If this was the outcome Cameron could sit tight

We are going to see a lot of projected commons numbers like the ones in the chart above in the next ten months.

What’s showing here are the buy levels for the three main parties on PaddyPower and as can be seen neither CON nor LAB would have a majority and would probably try to cobble together some deal to see themselves through.

    What the chart doesn’t show is that it’s likely that if this was the result the Tories would have a bigger national vote share while LAB would have the edge on seats.

The reasons are the boundaries and, most of all, much lower turnout levels in LAB heartlands compared with CON ones. The latter is what most impacts on the aggregate national vote shares.

That could create a lot of problems for the Lib Dems if they sought to go in with LAB a party that lost on votes.

An intriguing feature of such an outcome is that Cameron could sit tight and wouldn’t have to leave Downing Street. It would be only if/when LAB put together some sort of arrangements that would take them over the 325 seat mark that Dave would have to go to the Palace.

My reading of LAB is that the party would find it very challenging try to do deal with the LDs. If the LDs did get 34 seats then Clegg would probably stay – something that LAB would find it hard to swallow.

A fresh general election within a few months? Probably not because the Fixed Term Parliament act would make it difficult.

I’ve got 10/1 on a new CON-LD coalition and 12/1 on a hung parliament no coalition deal bets.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble





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With Dave outclassing Ed in the ratings and the economy getting better how come CON’s behind in the polls?

July 31st, 2014

Why are the Tories not in the lead?

One of the ongoing mysteries is why CON continue to lag behind LAB in the voting intention polls. The economy is recovering and this is now being seen by voters. On top of that the Tories retain a solid lead over LAB as best party on the economy.

We also have the Ed Miliband factor who continues to get poor ratings. Surely this should all be being reflected in the voting intention polls? The Tories should be ahead.

    The general theory is that leaders and the economy are “lagging indicators” which will only impact on voting at a very late stage. Maybe. Maybe not.

The big factor that makes GE2015 so uncertain is that we don’t have the conventional battlegrounds. LAB has hardly taken any voters from CON and there’s been little movement in the other direction. EdM’s party is relying a lot on 2010 LDs voters which it must retain. The Tories main battle is in trying protect itself against the UKIP surge.

On top of that we’ve got more polling than ever we’ve had before with so many different aspects that we can examine. Thus for last week’s Lord Ashcroft 14 seat CON-LAB battlegrounds polling more people were interviewed by phone than ICM do in a year for their Guardian series. This produces sub-set sample sizes, like for UKIP switchers or 2010 LDs, that are meaningful.

We also have the YouGov daily poll as well as the twice-weekly Populus polling which provides a mass of extra data to analyse.

So what’s going to happen? The one thing I find it hard to see happening is a CON majority. All other outcomes are possible.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Nighthawks is now open

July 30th, 2014

Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB Night Hawks.

If you’re Hungry Like The Wolf for news on politics and betting, you’ve come to the right place on Planet Earth for political betting.

If you’ve always been a lurker, and have The Reflex not to post, Nighthawks gives you an opportunity to delurk, don’t worry, you won’t become Wild Boys or Wild Girls after posting.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link)

  1. Why won’t the Salmond / Darling debate be shown in England?
  2. Will the rise in GDP hand the Tories the election? The recovery may be feeble, but voters are rewarding the Tories as GDP rises – and the ‘cost-of-living’ is half the issue it was in 2011.
  3. Balls puts the Tories on the spot over tax cuts for the rich
  4. The shamelessness of Balls
  5. Scottish independence vote is too close to call
  6. Cameron condemned for immigration PR stunt
  7. Will we ever see the likes of Blair again?
  8. London orbital railway on mayor’s £1.3 trillion wishlist
  9. Frank Dobson: Labour needs to be ‘knocking lumps off’ this government
  10. The ECHR is a “British Bill of Rights”
  11. EU migrants more likely to be in work than Britons
  12. If a rematch of the 2012 presidential election were held today, GOP nominee Mitt Romney would top President Barack Obama in the popular vote, according to a new national survey.
  13. US economy bounces back with 4% GDP growth in second quarter
  14. Scottish independence: Remember 2014, the last golden summer of the old Britain.
  15. Tracey Gough fought the Underhill ward on Weymouth and Portland Council for UKIP in May. Now she’s contesting a Town Council election. Take a look at the description she has used
  16. Will a show about Scottish Politics be the next Game of Thrones?
  17. Saturday is 2,352nd anniversary of the only notable battle ever fought on the 2nd of August, as Alexander the Great defeated an alliance of some of the Greek City states in the Battle of Chaeronea
  18. Saturday is the 2,230th anniversary of a vastly overrated general getting lucky against a couple of inept Romans, at the Battle of Cannae, his rubbishness was eventually exposed at Zama


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For YouGov trend spotting these are the best figures to watch not the daily polls

July 30th, 2014

After the LAB lead dropped from 6% on Monday night to 1% last night there’s been a lot of discussion about the volatility of the firm’s out. In reality, of course, both of this week’s polls have been within the margin of error.

The numbers I most look out for are above – the monthly averages which are very telling. We see the rise of UKIP now fading a touch and due to drop further in July. We also see the decline of Labour from the dizzy heights of te low 40s at the start of last year.

The Tories have stayed remarkably stable while the LDs have slipped.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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There’s been no Glasgow games boost yet for IndyRef YES on Betfair – now rated by punters as a 14.2% chance

July 30th, 2014

But betting interest remains strong with nearly £1.1m traded

The pre-Commonwealth games expectations that the Glasgow events would provide a boost for independence campaigners has yet to be materialised if Betfair punters are anything to go by. Even though Scottish athletes are having their best games ever punters appear unmoved.

The last trade on Yes as I write was at 7 which equates to a 14.2% chance – not far off it’s bottom. In fact just £108 of the £1,070,000 matched on Betfair has been at prices longer than that,

What we haven’t seen is any polling that’s been carried out since the start of the games a week ago. If that provides some positive news for YES then we could see prices turn.

A feature of the YES campaign that resonates badly is that every development is presented by them as good news. Their messaging would have a lot more credibility if they acknowledged set backs when they happen.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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PB Nighthawks is now open

July 29th, 2014

Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

If you’re a lurker, it’ll be a Tragedy if you don’t delurk, I’m sure your contributions won’t be Better Best Forgotten, I hope at least 5,6,7,8 lurkers delurk.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link)

  1. Why Cameron’s crackdown on immigrant benefits won’t help the Tories. The PM is fuelling the perception that “benefit tourism” is a problem while still allowing himself to be outflanked by Ukip. 
  2. Jowell retakes lead in Labour London Mayor poll – but race is still wide open
  3. Boris Johnson refuses to say if he plans to stand as MP in 2015. London mayor dodges questions on BBC’s World at One about whether he plans to re-enter parliament and combine two jobs
  4. Why Ed Miliband’s public image matters
  5. The Tories attack Miliband because they’ve got no decent policies
  6. Labour needs to make common cause with left-wing Lib Dem supporters to win in 2015
  7. Old debts put Labour still deep in the red, Opposition party owes more than all its rivals
  8. Tories to announce “tens of thousands” increase in membership at party conference.
  9. McBride back to attack a Labour leader? Old habits die hard
  10. Why Labour loves Andy Burnham, Burnham’s NHS brief gives him high-priest status, but it is the man himself who commands loyalty from the Labour faithful
  11. Bankers should take a Hippocratic oath to restore virtue to the financial sector
  12. The rich want us to believe their wealth is good for us all. As the justifications for gross inequality collapse, only the Green party is brave enough to take on the billionaires’ boot boys
  13.  Why patriotic Scots will be voting No. The question of the referendum is not “could Scotland be independent?”, but “why should it be?”
  14. How to win an argument on Twitter
  15. Life after a nuclear war revealed: Computer models reveal Earth would suffer a 20-year-long winter and worldwide famine. Researchers from Colorado studied the effects of nuclear conflict on Earth
  16. British inventor builds giant ‘fart machine’ to fire at France (hat-tip RobD)
  17. Model of Richard III looks more like a storm trooper, say experts
  18. The British Empire is ‘something to be proud of’
  19. This gentleman won’t be making any more outrageous predictions and bets in the future.
  20. Today is the 1,000th anniversary of the Battle of Kleidion, Basil II who became henceforth known as The Bulgar Slayer.
  21. Twenty-six years ago today, Paddy Ashdown became Liberal Democrat Leader, here’s what the Guardian wrote at the time.


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Even though it is well over four years since it was in power LAB is still getting the blame for the cuts

July 29th, 2014

Ever since May 2010 I’ve said that the “blame for the cuts” tracker from YouGov might be a good indicator.

The figures from 2014 are in the chart above and although the party is not on its worst position, 48% back in October 2010, it is still blamed more than the coalition.

While that remains Osborne/Cameron/Clegg & co can still respond to criticism of their economic policies by blaming LAB. Polling like this suggests that their line still resonates. This is going to get louder in the coming months.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Vote UKIP get a LAB government might not have the potency that many Tories think it has

July 29th, 2014

CON & LAB governments running neck and neck as preferred outcome amongst UKIP voters

You hear it all the time from the Blue teams when talking about the Ukip threat – that when faced with the prospect of a LAB government a large proportion will “come back home” and vote Tory.

That was a view that I broadly shared until last night before my detailed study of the aggregate data from the latest 14k sample Ashcroft marginals polling focused on CON held battlegrounds with LAB.

The above findings in the chart came as something of a surprise to me and I’m sure that I won’t be alone.

There were 2352 UKIP voters in the sample and the chart above shows how they split when faced with the very telling question of what would be their preferred general election outcome.

As can be seen fewer than one third (32%) wanted a CON government with 31% saying a LAB one. It’s that last figure that stands out.

That finding suggests that there are nearly as many potential LAB voters in the UKIP contingent as CON ones. Thus in the high octane campaigning environment of a tight marginal that the Tories might not have the advantage that they are widely perceived to have.

Vote UKIP get a LAB government might not be the compelling general election message that CON campaigners think it is.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter