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A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Leadsom now or wait for the race to evolve

July 1st, 2016

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What are the chances of her doing it?

On May 25h while perusing the Betfair next CON leader odds I saw that Andrea Leadson was available at 90 and immediately took the few pounds that was available that price. It then slipped down to 65, 55 46 nd 44 and I took that as well. My next bet on Leadsom was at 9.31am, just after Cameron had resigned, when I got 65.

The result is that I’m sitting on a very nice payday if she does end up as winner when the result is announced on September 2nd.

The question I’ve been pondering is whether to take some or all of the profits now she has tightened to the 5-6 region on the Betfair exchange.

At the moment it appears that Theresa May is romping home and there’s even been speculation that all the other contenders could pull out after Tuesday’s first round MP vote. In that case she could even become PM next week.

Funny things can happen in leadership contests particularly the Tory one and this coming weekend is going to be fascinating.

Mike Smithson





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New YouGov polling finds that Corbyn has lost his LAB members’ lifeline. He now looks doomed

July 1st, 2016


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YouGov

His equivocal & lacklustre referendum campaign has damaged him with the members he needs

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Above are some of the key findings from a new YouGov poll of LAB party members – the very people that Corbyn is looking to to help keep him in his job.

He’s portraying his current battle with his MPs as one between them and the membership who so enthusiasticly voted him to the leadership last September. Until May he was still enjoying overwhelming member support but the referendum appears to have changed all that.

    The suggestions that he might have voted leave and that close advisors were trying to sabotage the efforts to stay in the EU appear to have undermined his standing with the members he desperately needs.

If it goes to a vote it is now far from certain that he would get the backing even though a match up against Angela Eagle has him 10% ahead.

The polling undermines totally Corbyn’s claims to have ongoing membership support. I think that his days are now numbered and he’ll become another casualty of last week’s referendum vote.

YouGov has an excellent record with LAB member polling and got last September’s election almost dead on.

Mike Smithson




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After the most dramatic post-war week in British politics the first electoral tests: Tonight’s local by-elections

June 30th, 2016

St. Michael’s (Con defence) on Bexley
Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 45, Labour 15, United Kingdom Independence Party 3 (Conservative majority of 27)
Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,352, 1,314, 1,140 (35%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,280 (33%)
Labour 857, 769, 720 (22%)
British National Party 407 (10%)
Candidates duly nominated: Keith Forster (UKIP), Michael Jones (BNP), Sam Marchant (Lab), Derek Moran (Green), Simone Reynolds (Lib Dem), Ray Sams (Con)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 47,603 (37%) LEAVE 80,886 (63%) on a turnout of 75%

High Town (Lab defence) on Luton
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 35, Liberal Democrats 8, Conservatives 5 (Labour overall majority of 22)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,442, 1,039 (53%)
Conservatives 791, 748 (29%)
Green Party 479, 329 (18%)
Candidates duly nominated: Lyn Bliss (Green), John French (Ind), Grace Froggart (UKIP), Sue Garrett (Con), Clive Mead (Lib Dem), Maahwish Mirza (Lab)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 36,708 (43%) LEAVE 47,773 (57%) on a turnout of 66%

Leatherhead North (Con defence) on Mole Valley
Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 23, Liberal Democrats 12, Independents 6 (Conservative majority of 5)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 1,064 (34%), Liberal Democrat 915 (29%), United Kingdom Independence Party 571 (18%), Labour 455 (15%), Green Party 122 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Simon Chambers (UKIP), Joe Crome (Lib Dem), Vicki Elcoate (Green), Marc Green (Lab), Tracey Keeley (Con)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 29,088 (53%) LEAVE 25,708 (47%) on a turnout of 82%

Rhoose (Ind defence) on Vale of Glamorgan
Result of council last election (2012): Labour 22, Conservatives 11, Plaid Cymru 6, Independents 3, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 2)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 810, 727 (49%)
Independent 882 (28%)
Labour 713 (23%)
Candidates duly nominated: Rachael Banner (Ind), James Fyfe (Pirate), Gordon Kemp (Con), Graham Loveluck-Edwards (Lab), Robin Lynn (Lib Dem), Ian Perry (Plaid) Adam Riley (Ind)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 36,681 (51%) LEAVE 35,628 (49%) on a turnout of 76%

Newington (UKIP defence) on Thanet to be held on July 1st 2016
Result of council at last election (2015): United Kingdom Independence Party 33, Conservatives 18, Labour 4, Independent 1 (UKIP majority of 10)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
United Kingdom Independence Party 884, 845(44%)
Labour 728, 713 (36%)
Conservatives 390, 363 (20%)
Candidates duly nominated: Matthew Brown (Lib Dem), Adam Dark (Con), David Green (Lab), Roy Potts (UKIP),
Referendum Result: REMAIN 26,065 (36%) LEAVE 46,037 (64%) on a turnout of 73%

Anyone who tells you that they know how these by-elections will go is telling you a bare faced lie. This time last week REMAIN were rated as a 75% chance on the betting markets, Cameron was going to stand down as PM after the local elections of 2017, Corbyn would be Labour leader until at least 2019 and the cable rate (£ vs $) was approaching a recent high. Therefore I am not even going to attempt to second guess how these by-elections will go (nor indeed will I make any future attempts to as well). For instance, will REMAIN areas revolt and elect parties that supported LEAVE? Will LEAVE areas punish those who called for a REMAIN vote? Will rock solid Conservative areas fall to the Liberal Democrats? Will UKIP gain seats from Labour as if there was no tomorrow? Will the SNP dominate Scotland to such an extent that everyone else gives up? Who knows? The main thing is that I don’t (and if anyone tells you otherwise, in the words of Public Enemy “Don’t believe the hype!”)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



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On an explosive day the latest CON leader betting and charts

June 30th, 2016

Prices updated every few minutes



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The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reflecting on the longest week in politics that just about anybody can remember

June 30th, 2016

Big Ben

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi try and make sense of what has happened in the past week – as news of Theresa May’s poll lead over Boris Johnson and Michael Gove’s decision to stand for Tory leader breaks all around them. They discuss why Britain decided to leave the EU, the polling, who will be the next Prime Minister and what now for the Labour Party.

You can follow Keiran on twitter at @keiranpedley and Leo at @leobarasi



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Just months before the US looks set to elect a female President both main UK party leaders could be women

June 30th, 2016

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The dramatic feminisation of the political world

Today, just a week after the referendum, there’s expected to be big developments over the Conservative and Labour leaderships.

Nominations for the successor to Cameron close and reports suggest that Angela Eagle will announce that she’s seeking the 51 required nominations to contest the Labour leadership.

The latest YouGov poll of Conservative members, the group that will ultimately decide the party leadership and next PM, has unexpectedly found that the Home Secretary, Theresa May, has a substantial lead over the ex-mayor, Mr Johnson. In a head to head match the pollster found that Theresa is 17% ahead of Boris. The widespread assumption before was that his biggest leadership challenge was going to be getting onto the ballot not whether he would win with the membership.

With Labour’s leadership crisis continuing and the hapless Corbyn clinging on in spite of being rejected by his parliamentary colleagues the next move looks set to be Angela Eagle making a formal challenge. If that happens and she wins then we could have both Conservative and Labour leadership elections taking place at about the same time with new leaders in place in September.

All this occurs, of course, in the run up to November’s White House race with US polls pointing to widening leads for Hillary Clinton over the presumptive Republican nominee, Mr. Trump.

An enormous amount, of course, could happen as all these contests unfold but there must be a reasonable chance that these three posts could all be held by women.

I wonder whether there might be a spin-off effect. Could the prospect of a woman CON leader and PM make it easier for Labour to choose a woman for the first time?

Whatever we’ve got another interesting political day ahead of us.

A big thank you to those who've contributed to the financial appeals for PB. This is helping us to maintain the viability of the site and enable us to cope with the huge spike in demand on the technical infrastructure that we've been seeing.

Mike Smithson




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Huge YouGov boost for Theresa May on the night before nominations close

June 29th, 2016

The first poll of members has big CON member backing for the Home Secretary

Let us lust remind ourselves how the CON leadership election works. There will be a series of secret ballot of MPs until they get down to a final two – then the choice will be made by party members in a postal ballot.

So of all the polls the ones we should pay most attention are those tonight from YouGov which has very good news for May and disappointing news for the long term front-runner, Mr. Johnson.

Of course it might be that these will not be the final two and in the past the Tory election process has thrown up surprises. In 2001 the big favourite, Michael Portillo, did not make the final cut and the Tories ended up with IDS who was ousted two years later.

I think that Johnson suffers from not having been a cabinet minister and in this election the party is choosing the next PM.

Mike Smithson




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Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of breathtaking proportions

June 29th, 2016

Stroke

Where do we go now?

One of the most haunting Arthurian legends concerns Sir Balin.  Merlin had long prophesied that he would “strike a stroke most dolorous that ever man struck”.  Shrugging off this particular instance of Project Fear from an expert, Sir Balin entered into a feud with the family of King Pellam.  Being pursued by the king through his castle, Sir Balin seized “a marvellous spear strangely wrought” and dealt a fierce blow to the king.  The spear turned out to be the spear of destiny that struck Jesus and the blow caused immeasurably wider devastation than Sir Balin could have conceived.  Sir Thomas Malory recorded that: “all that were alive cried, O Balin, thou hast caused great damage in these countries; for the dolorous stroke thou gavest unto King Pellam three countries are destroyed, and doubt not but the vengeance will fall on thee at the last.”

You can probably see where I am going with this.  Since the referendum, we have had concurrent constitutional, political and economic crises of breathtaking proportions.  The position of Scotland and Northern Ireland in the union is now in serious question.  The future direction of the EU has been thrown into complete confusion.  The government is functioning on emergency life support only while the opposition is no longer functioning at all.  In the meantime, Britain’s Standard & Poors credit rating has dropped two notches, the pound has suffered its biggest fall in one day against the dollar ever, markets around the world have crashed and recession is beckoning with a dark cloak, a skeletal finger and a voice that speaks in block capitals.

It is of course far too early to conclude that Brexit is a disaster.  Even the chirpiest Brexiteer, however, would have to concede that the barometer is currently firmly pointing to stormy.  With all of the prominent Leave campaigners queuing up to rat on the Leave campaign promises, it is becoming increasingly unclear what the benefits of Leaving are now supposed to be.  It has reached the point where Leave supporters are angrily blaming the government for not telling them.

What next?  It is important to differentiate between what needs to be done now and what can wait.  This week’s chief task is to stabilise the markets, so far as possible.  George Osborne and Mark Carney have done this to the best of their ability.

And then it is time for great minds to discuss ideas.  The Conservatives are to hold a leadership contest and it is apparent that it will be contested.  The various candidates should be setting out their vision for how to implement the referendum result   The winner is likely to be setting policy that will set the course of the nation for two generations, so this had better be well thought-through.  A newspaper column dashed off carelessly isn’t going to cut it.  For the sake of the nation, the Conservatives need to have a searching examination of the options between the different candidates.  This matters as leadership contests very rarely really matter.

The Lib Dems have already set out their position: to rejoin the EU. UKIP’s position is easy to guess – to prioritise restricting freedom of movement above all else.

But what of Labour?  What indeed.  Right now, their small minds are discussing people.  All discussion is focussed on whether Jeremy Corbyn should remain as leader.  But that is only the immediate problem.  It is likely that there will be a general election later this year in which the main policy topic will be how to negotiate with the EU.  The Lib Dems have a position.  UKIP has a position.  The Conservatives will painstakingly have established a position.  But as of today it is hard to contemplate even the mechanism by which Labour can form a policy position.  The party has effectively ceased to function.

A general election is pending.  Labour is running out of time to form a policy position.  As they argue among themselves about how the party is to be led, their leading figures risk complete irrelevance in the debate that is going to dominate British politics for the foreseeable future.  If Labour is irrelevant in the debate, the likely electoral consequence is obvious.  The most lethal stroke from the referendum result might be to the continued existence of the Labour party itself.

Alastair Meeks