I suspect this is sub-optimal for the Tories and Sunak
Although this polling from More in Common might be sub-optimal for Reform and Farage. Being seen as Dangerous, Idiot, and Racist isn’t how you win seats. TSE
The Tory Party’s long term problems
Ric Holden is the Tory Party Chairman who has just completed the chicken run. If he is the sort of Tory MP that will make up the parliamentary party after the election it is why the Tories are likely to have a long spell in opposition, the quality of candidates and MPs is at an all time low. TSE
A Portillo moment for a new generation?
The (literally for some) seminal moment of the 1997 general election was Defence Secretary Michael Portillo and likely next Tory leader losing his seat and according to some polls we might be headed for something even more spectacular this year. The Tories losing Richmond & Northallerton feels like a the ravens fleeing of the Tower of London of moment, I just cannot see it happening despite Sunak’s best efforts. Below are the odds from Ladbrokes for Sunak’s seat and I…
PB Predictions Competition 2024 – update!
John William Waterhouse – The Crystal Ball – Wikipedia Public Domain To lighten the mood a little during the long UK General Election campaign I thought I might provide a brief update on the PB Prediction Competition. Firstly, a reminder of the 10 questions that were set, including the answers for those that are settled: 1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. Answer: 11%, More in Common (7–11 Feb). 2. Date of the next…
What to do if and when crossover happens
Like CCHQ I wouldn’t be astonished to see Reform ahead of the Tories with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll in the next few days. If that happens I expect the betting markets to have a moment. We’ve been here before, back in 2010 after the first debate the Lib Dems surged from third to first in the polls thanks to Nick Clegg’s performance. The market wildly overreacted which allowed for great profits such as the Lib…
London Falling. The Capital and the election
Stodge gives his analysis on London London is home to 75 of the 650 Constituencies in the forthcoming General Election, an increase of two from 2019. At the last election, Labour “won” London with 48% of the vote, the Conservatives got 32%, the Liberal Democrats 15%, the Greens 3% and the Brexit Party 1.5%. This, however, produced no net change with Labour winning 49 seats (including Putney, their only gain in England from the Conservatives), the Conservatives winning 21 seats…
Could the Conservatives Really Come Third?
Political earthquakes are infrequent, but they do happen. In 2015, in Scotland, the SNP swept the board, taking 56 of the 59 seats on offer. Labour – once dominant – dropped from 41 seats to just a single one, despite winning almost a quarter of the vote. First Past the Post can be cruel. In Canada, in 1993, the Progressive Conservatives contrived to lose 154 of their 156 seats. They went from government to fifth place, dropping behind not just…
And From The Other Side of the Pond…
We’ve all forgotten (what with the excitement of Starmer v Sunak), but the US Presidential election continues… and on Betfair exchange, Trump has moved into a commanding lead. Looking at these odds, what stand out to me is not that Trump is odds on (we can argue whether he or Biden should be narrow favorite), but just how big the gap. The polls remains pretty static: Biden and Trump are neck and neck. The Republicans have an advantage in the…