politicalbetting.com

Yesterday’s news about a potential pact between the Tories and Reform helped crystalise a thought I’ve had about why backing Reform to win the most seats at the next general election might not be profitable even if you are confident that Nigel Farage is going to be the Prime Minister after the next election. I’ll explain the reasons why this is plausible I) A pact between Reform and the Tories. This might allow Labour to win the most seats but…

Read More Read More

Like John Rentoul I think there will be no pact simply because of the logistics of organising the pact. It would a very messy process deciding which seats/candidates you agree to stand/withdraw in, there’s also the issue of ego. I cannot see Badenoch or Farage being able to manage the pact process or a general election campaign where one of them would have to play second fiddle to the other. For those reasons alone I cannot see a pact happening…

Read More Read More

The good news for Badenoch and the Tories is that if Badenoch can get a good brand going it might not be all gloom and doom for the Tories. TSE

This morning I wrote a piece on the next Prime Minister betting market and I thought the value lay with somebody on the Labour side, but who? This is a market that may not realise a winner for around a decade or longer so things can change a lot as well as the time value of money ruining your returns, who in 1980 would predicted lowly backbencher John Major would succeed Margaret Thatcher? Right now I think this market and…

Read More Read More

I maintain that Farage remains a lay in this market and the value lies with somebody on the Labour side who would replace Starmer before the next election. If he was contemplating resigning after the Hartlepool by election defeat then he might actually quit if things go sub-optimally during the rest of his premiership. TSE

Speak to a lot of Tories, particularly the activists, and they will tell you this is the worst government in history, if they are right then surely it must worry them that the Tories are now firmly in third place in pretty much every poll. The reason for the dire Tory position is a substantial movement of their 2024 vote to Reform, and in comparison Labour have only lost 8% of their 2024 vote to Reform in the latest YouGov…

Read More Read More

Looking at the polling, which isn’t out of line with other polling, shows first past the post is lacking support due its inherent unfairness, winning a majority of 172 on a vote share of 33.7% is inequitable, like cash, first past the post feels like an anachronism in the modern way. I suspect Nigel Farage will point out the unfairness and why Reform might not do as well in terms of seats as the polls suggest, as we can see…

Read More Read More

There are many reasons for not confidently predicting the outcome of the next election right now, I have mentioned them a few times on this website. For example there’s an awful long time to the next election, which could be nearly four and a half years away so a lot can change, first past the post can be cruel mistress and we could see utter anarchy with the results if three or four parties are polling in the early twenties/within…

Read More Read More