Why are the Eurosceptics not kicking up more of a fuss?

Why are the Eurosceptics not kicking up more of a fuss?

May looks set for an easier ride The Conservative whips are doing their job well. Evening after evening, the government records consistent majorities in the teens or twenties as it protects its Brexit Bill unamended through the Commons. More innovatively, we saw this morning a flurry of tweets and statements from Tory MPs and ministers lauding Theresa May for her tough diplomacy in delivering a good interim Brexit deal. That helped set the news agenda. To some extent, there was…

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It is now five months since “right to Leave” had lead in YouGov’s Brexit tracker

It is now five months since “right to Leave” had lead in YouGov’s Brexit tracker

Could this swing back following today’s deal? Ever since the referendum PB has been monitoring the regular tracker that has been issued at regular intervals by YouGov. The wording is in the chart above which seeks to show the trend since Britain voted to leave. What I have done is to take the average monthly “right to leave” figure and deduct from it the average “wrong to leave” number. I am using monthly averages in order to illustrate the trend….

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CON loses another seat to LDs in latest Local By-Elections

CON loses another seat to LDs in latest Local By-Elections

Newport on North Devon (Con defence) Result: Con 373 (37% -3% on last time), Lab 83 (8%, no candidate last time) Lib Dem 390 (39% +7% on last time), Green 159 (16% -12% on last time) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 17 (2%) on a swing of 5% from Con to Lib Dem Highway on Enfield (Lab defence) Result: Con 620 (27% +8% on last time), Lab 1,619 (70% +23% on last time), Green 79 (3%…

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TMay has probably ensured that she’ll remain as PM until Brexit

TMay has probably ensured that she’ll remain as PM until Brexit

The Brussels deal – the betting reaction Like all negotiations this one went right to the edge. Something had to be agreed by this weekend to ensure that things moved to the next stage, but both the EU and the UK have been flexible and Mrs. May can take some credit. The initial reaction from CON MPs was positive for her suggesting that she’ll be able to carry on until Brexit. On the currency markets, always a sure indicator, the…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What do the DUP want? Will there be a united Ireland? Why do Survation have Labour +8 when others don’t? (and more)

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What do the DUP want? Will there be a united Ireland? Why do Survation have Labour +8 when others don’t? (and more)

On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Mick Fealty of Slugger O’Toole to discuss what the DUP really wants from Brexit negotiations, the role that Irish domestic politics is playing and will play moving forward plus a new poll apparently showing support in Northern Ireland for a united Ireland with EU membership. Also on the show, Keiran looks at the recent Survation poll showing Labour +8 ahead and why it is so different to what other pollsters have and dissects some data…

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New Northern Ireland poll finds more saying they’d prefer to join the Republic than leaving EU & remaining in UK

New Northern Ireland poll finds more saying they’d prefer to join the Republic than leaving EU & remaining in UK

Northern Ireland's top pollster finds by small margin more people saying they'd prefer to join the Republic to stay in EU than to leave EU and stay in UK pic.twitter.com/viKBapmqYI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 7, 2017 The above findings by Northern Ireland’s leading pollster are quite dramatic because they suggest that a significant proportion of the Protestant community said that they’d preferred to stay within the EU even if that meant uniting with the Republic. What is clear is…

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Support growing for another EURef in an unlikely publication – the Brexit backing Spectator

Support growing for another EURef in an unlikely publication – the Brexit backing Spectator

A Speccie headline I'd though we would never see. "Nick Clegg is right: we need a second Brexit referendum" https://t.co/QzNDjycoeN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 7, 2017 Ladbrokes 5/1 on EURef3 might be value The Survation MoS poll on Sunday had what was a surprise result the should there be another Brexit referendum question was put. By a margin of 16% those sampled said they wanted one. This has long been been a call from the former LD leader and…

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