Could this swing back following today’s deal?
Ever since the referendum PB has been monitoring the regular tracker that has been issued at regular intervals by YouGov. The wording is in the chart above which seeks to show the trend since Britain voted to leave.
What I have done is to take the average monthly “right to leave” figure and deduct from it the average “wrong to leave” number. I am using monthly averages in order to illustrate the trend.
What is clear is that since the June General Election there has been something of a change of mood although the scale of that is not that great.
But you have to go back to the general election month itself to find average “right to leave” leads.
The interesting question now is where will the tracker go following the developments today in Brussels. My guess is that we could see a narrowing given the fact that there has been a degree of support amongst leading Conservative figures for what Mrs May has achieved.
There is, of course, a long way to go and moods can swing very much one way or the other.
Note that this polling question should not be interpreted as how people would vote in a fresh referendum if there was one. It is asking those sampled to reflect on what they think in hindsight.