It has been an inauspicious start to the campaign for the Tories
TSE
The next chapter of the Scottish play?
The Telegraph are reporting that Scotland’s prosecutors could detonate a “political grenade” that derails the SNP’s general election campaign, a nationalist MP has warned them after they confirmed Nicola Sturgeon remains under investigation. Angus MacNeil urged the Crown Office to provide “clarity” on whether they will “hold off” until after the election on bringing any further charges over the investigation into the SNP’s finances. The Western Isles MP said any action over Operation Branchform before July 4 had “huge potential to change…
Never go full Corbyn 2019
One of the key lessons from 2019 is that no matter how flawed a leader you are, you can still win a healthy general election majority if your opponent is even more flawed and a bigger voter repellant. Whilst this isn’t all on Sunak, this is what happens when you’re leading the governing party of the last fourteen years it still some ‘achievement’ to outdo Jeremy Corbyn. One of the reasons Boris Johnson’s leadership ambitions are over is that towards…
Let’s talk about cats and one cat in particular
One of things that has a profound impact on betting is what percentage lead do Labour need to win a majority. After the last election the consensus was that Labour needed a lead of around 12% to win a majority of 2 at this election but things have changed. The SNP implosion in North Britain has helped Labour’s vote more efficient, the Tory implosion, and return of anti-Tory tactical vote are several reasons why I expect Labour’s vote to be…
Coming to a Lib Dem bar chart near you
If you think the Lib Dems are going to do better than the polls suggest then this finding from JL Partners will bring you great joy as it shows the Lib Dem vote share rising from 24% to 32% when voters are asked about tactical voting in their specific seats. Like Joe Alder I would caution against accepting this is a gospel as hypothetical polling can be very wrong as the Lib Dems can attest. Back in the run up…
Forget the campaign, the curse of Harry Kane could have a bigger impact on the election
Martyn Ziegler in The Times has this little piece that might explain why Sunak called a July election Rishi Sunak will be hoping that England do well at Euro 2024 because an early exit could be the final nail in the coffin of his dying government. A general election will take place during a major tournament for the first time since 1970 and research carried out by the political scientists has suggested that incumbents get a lift from positive feelings…
Something to ponder before betting on this election
I like this analysis by Ben Walker which shows how close the Tories are to a 1931 in reverse result, which notes ‘Britain Predicts finds more than half of the 100-150 seats the Tories are currently forecast to hold will be with majorities of 5pts or less.’ Not only are we a small polling error away from a 1931 in reverse type of result even if the polls do not narrow as they usually do during the campaign. When you…
The Lib Dems could win a seat from 4th
In the UK we don’t have truly national elections, each general election comprises 650 simultaneous local contests. In theory. In practice the vast majority of voters in the vast majority of seats cast their ballot on the basis of the party, or party leader, they prefer. Most don’t care, and many don’t even know, about their local candidates. That is true in almost every seat. But one of the rare exceptions might throw a stunning curveball on election night. Independent…