When a cult takes over a political party there is a tendency to tell existing supporters to go and vote for somebody else, we saw this with some Corbynites which explains why Corbyn lost two general elections in a row. Seeing the clip above did bring back some memories but from a betting point of view it might be time to start thinking about laying the GOP taking back control of the Senate in November. So there’s three main reasons…
On Tuesday I wrote about Sunak’s latest plan which involved Susan Hall winning the London Mayoral election which would allow Sunak to get out of jail, I remain doubtful of such hopes and today’s Savanta poll reinforces those doubts and the Betfair market seems to think it is a done deal for Khan as do I. Chris Hopkins of Savanta has written a thread on why Khan’s lead may not as be as impressive as it first seems. TSE
It seems these days every days seems to bring a new poll showing Sunak and the Tories hitting new lows that may rival the ratings of Liz Truss, the UK’s shortest serving Prime Minister. There’s two points to consider, firstly if the Tories and Sunak remain this unpopular then the polls may be underestimating them when tactical voting is considered, because my view is the higher the unpopularity the more anti-Tory tactical voting will take place. Secondly, if the polls…
Today marks the 20th birthday of Politicalbetting and also my retirement from the site. I had hoped to stay with the site till the general election and the American presidential vote in the November Unfortunately my health is deteriorating and I have been doing far less on PB. Our site is probably one of the oldest political sites on the internet and we were founded before Guido Conservative home and so on. Thank you to all of you, It has…
I think the Telegraph are reading too much into Penny Mordaunt’s (lack of) comments. However this is a febrile time with today’s YouGov poll showing the Tories hitting Truss levels of support and a mere 4% ahead of Reform, crossover between the possible is a possibility in the near future. If that does happen with Reform ahead of the Tories in the polls then the bowels of the Parliamentary Tory Party will loosen and the result will be an internal…
This analysis is required reading for anybody who thinks sticking the Reform share of the vote (or a large percentage of that vote) to the Tory share of the vore is what will happen at the general election. I suspect Sunak’s wooing of these voters will also not be effective. TSE
If there’s one group in this country I absolutely wish would disappear from British politics and it is NIMBYs who seem to be a part of every major political party. The country wants more houses built, the foundation of Mrs Thatcher’s policies was helping the lower classes to own their homes. The Tories have had fourteen years to fix the housing crisis and barely scratched the surface. I can only hope a Starmer led government can fix the issues and…
At the last election turnout was 67.3% and I might expect turnout to be higher at this election as voters mobilise to get the Tories out but I suspect turnout will be lower due to voting ID requirements change. After last year’s locals, Jacob Rees-Mogg admitted those changes were a gerrymander aka voter suppression. Rees-Mogg admitted “Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as, dare I say, we found by insisting…