Many thanks to Patrick Flynn of FocalData for compiling this analysis which explains why we have such variance in the polls and fits in with this morning’s thread. To quote Patrick, ‘These is your cheat sheet for identifying which pollster belongs in which group. Yellows and greens tend to show reduced Labour leads.’ It is worth reviewing polls when they come out to this cheat sheet. TSE Hat-tip to eek for posting this tweet on the previous thread
Back in 2012 when Mike Smithson first asked me to edit PB one thing he told me pay close attention to was the thoughts of his friend Lord Hayward, the man who has an excellent record in spotting polling failures, going back to the shy Tories of 1992. Today’s Guardian has the following report Some of the polls before the general election may be overstating Labour’s huge lead over the Conservatives, a Tory election expert has said. According to Robert Hayward,…
TSE
The Telegraph are reporting that Scotland’s prosecutors could detonate a “political grenade” that derails the SNP’s general election campaign, a nationalist MP has warned them after they confirmed Nicola Sturgeon remains under investigation. Angus MacNeil urged the Crown Office to provide “clarity” on whether they will “hold off” until after the election on bringing any further charges over the investigation into the SNP’s finances. The Western Isles MP said any action over Operation Branchform before July 4 had “huge potential to change…
One of the key lessons from 2019 is that no matter how flawed a leader you are, you can still win a healthy general election majority if your opponent is even more flawed and a bigger voter repellant. Whilst this isn’t all on Sunak, this is what happens when you’re leading the governing party of the last fourteen years it still some ‘achievement’ to outdo Jeremy Corbyn. One of the reasons Boris Johnson’s leadership ambitions are over is that towards…
One of things that has a profound impact on betting is what percentage lead do Labour need to win a majority. After the last election the consensus was that Labour needed a lead of around 12% to win a majority of 2 at this election but things have changed. The SNP implosion in North Britain has helped Labour’s vote more efficient, the Tory implosion, and return of anti-Tory tactical vote are several reasons why I expect Labour’s vote to be…
If you think the Lib Dems are going to do better than the polls suggest then this finding from JL Partners will bring you great joy as it shows the Lib Dem vote share rising from 24% to 32% when voters are asked about tactical voting in their specific seats. Like Joe Alder I would caution against accepting this is a gospel as hypothetical polling can be very wrong as the Lib Dems can attest. Back in the run up…
Martyn Ziegler in The Times has this little piece that might explain why Sunak called a July election Rishi Sunak will be hoping that England do well at Euro 2024 because an early exit could be the final nail in the coffin of his dying government. A general election will take place during a major tournament for the first time since 1970 and research carried out by the political scientists has suggested that incumbents get a lift from positive feelings…