Whilst the focus on the MRP will be the size of the Labour majority/the Tory wipeout and Sunak at risk of losing his seat this is the second MRP this year showing the SNP overwhelmingly winning the majority of Scottish seats. Polls should be smoked but not inhaled especially MRPs i have my doubts about the Reform figure and where their support will go if they don’t stand. I cannot see Sunak’s seat going Labour, looking under the hood this…
About a decade ago I had a conversation with a political adviser who with equal measure of delight and astonishment admitted that since David Cameron became Tory leader the Tories led Labour on the NHS which was something nobody could have predicted saying it was as likely as Labour leading the Tories on defence. The sad thing for the Tories and even more importantly for the country is that is polling was inevitable, there have been enough warnings that the…
Redfield & Wilton earlier on this week published their regular Welsh polling, one thing that Sir Keir Starmer will not have to deal with Welsh secession if he becomes PM. The polling, like pretty much every other poll in the country, also brings truly dire polling for the Tories where it is feasible to see them polling third behind Reform, this could be replicated at the general election which would be a real political wooden spoon. This could be down…
When it comes to Scottish polling one important caveat is often missed and that is that soon the SNP will be soon be entering their eighteenth year of being in power at Holyrood. Given that context I think Yousaf’s and the SNP’s polling isn’t that bad, Sunak and the Tories would love to have that kind of polling figures GB wide and while Jim Murphy’s post might be funny it masks the fact that during 2024 the SNP have been…
I suspect this story about Angela Rayner is Currygate Mark II which rather got Tory partisans and Starmer critics rather excited but with the locals coming up this is a distraction Labour could do without. The one thing that is different is that the Dan Neidle is querying some of Angela Rayner’s assertions which should worry her. Mr Neidle is the last person I would want getting involved in my tax affairs. TSE
The great contradiction of British politics today is the Tories talking about cracking down on small numbers of illegal immigration yet consistently delivering record breaking legal immigration, this polling captures that and why Sunak is in a bit of pickle. TSE
If deputy political editor of ITV news is right there is massive value in backing June, and/or July, August as the month of the general election. I still think an autumn election is where we are headed but I am now having a nibble at these prices. I am not the only one to note that Sunak might be approaching a breaking point and wants out, this fits that thesis. TSE
I think any political party that tries to change/end the triple lock will see a response to Mrs May’s dementia tax. TSE