politicalbetting.com

Like many on here, I have spent some time sifting the constituency markets looking for value bets. Boundary changes mean that Ordnance Survey’s excellent Election Maps site is required in addition to Wikipedia. I’ve generally stayed away from the Conservative-Labour battlegrounds and focussed on seats where it’s not clear who will be the main challenger to the Conservatives or the SNP. However, I have found two seats that provide interesting case studies for how our politics have realigned in the…

Read More Read More

This shows the betting on Betfair overall majority market over the last three and a half a years. We can see a Labour majority traded as low as an 8.3% chance in May 2021, now they are a 91% chance. I find it amusing that NOM is now as low as Labour’s lowest chance of winning a majority. TSE

The Opinium poll must really sting for the Tories given how they generally have been the most favourable pollster for the Tories. If this is the beginning of a trend with Opinium then last night’s MRP might turn out to be close. TSE

2019 wasn’t all bad for the Lib Dems. Yes, they won just 8 seats and lost their leader. Which was pretty poor. But the vote became much targeted. The Lib Dems gained more than doubled their number of second place seats (from 38 to 94). A lot of these were fairly winnable, with 30 seats being theirs on a single digit swing (at least under the boundaries at the time). Even more encouragingly, 24 of those 30 seats (and 29…

Read More Read More

My word, if this MRP is accurate we should talking about the Lib Dems as the official opposition after the election. I expect a few other MRPs over the next few weeks, if they are anything like this then we will be entering a death loop for the Tories. It may also bugger up a few Tory leadership plans. TSE

The key point for me is the distribution of those now more/less likely to vote Trump, Trump takes a real hit with Independents which could be utterly damaging for his chances in November. TSE

Graphic: The Betfair US Presidential market over the last 5 days TSE

Trump taken down by a porn star and a Pecker When I heard the jury had reached a swift verdict my expectation was Trump to be found not guilty so this is quite the result. I am currently up to my eyeballs on drugs fighting a viral infection so I will need to think about this but my expectation is that this is sub-optimal for Trump given the number of voters who said they will not vote for a convicted…

Read More Read More