It has been an exciting day for political aficionados with the apparent purge of some left leaning Labour MPs with the most high profile being Diane Abbott. This YouGov poll shows the public do support Starmer’s decision although Labour voter’s disagree. I have never been a Diane Abbott fan. If there’s one thing that will really annoy me is hypocrisy on education and she’s got a lot of hypocrisy there as this link shows. She’s also made quite a few…
Graphic – Betfair over the last week on the overall majority market A week ago Rishi Sunak announced the election on the 4th of July and as we can see the first week of the campaign has hardly changed the expectation of gamblers. Starmer’s safety first approach is working so far. TSE
Ever since John Swinney replaced Humza Yousaf as First Minister every subsequent poll has shown the SNP going backwards and this Survation is no different, whilst there is a risk of the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc that there appears to be no better leader than John Swinney available for the SNP. What really should worry the SNP is that Sir Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar have better leader ratings than John Swinney which usually is an indicator…
My fellow Whovians will be asking the same question as I. Is Sir Ed Davey a Sontaran? TSE
Many thanks to Patrick Flynn of FocalData for compiling this analysis which explains why we have such variance in the polls and fits in with this morning’s thread. To quote Patrick, ‘These is your cheat sheet for identifying which pollster belongs in which group. Yellows and greens tend to show reduced Labour leads.’ It is worth reviewing polls when they come out to this cheat sheet. TSE Hat-tip to eek for posting this tweet on the previous thread
Back in 2012 when Mike Smithson first asked me to edit PB one thing he told me pay close attention to was the thoughts of his friend Lord Hayward, the man who has an excellent record in spotting polling failures, going back to the shy Tories of 1992. Today’s Guardian has the following report Some of the polls before the general election may be overstating Labour’s huge lead over the Conservatives, a Tory election expert has said. According to Robert Hayward,…
TSE
The Telegraph are reporting that Scotland’s prosecutors could detonate a “political grenade” that derails the SNP’s general election campaign, a nationalist MP has warned them after they confirmed Nicola Sturgeon remains under investigation. Angus MacNeil urged the Crown Office to provide “clarity” on whether they will “hold off” until after the election on bringing any further charges over the investigation into the SNP’s finances. The Western Isles MP said any action over Operation Branchform before July 4 had “huge potential to change…