politicalbetting.com

Misinformation online has become commonplace. It has fuelled riots and disorder and maybe propelled a few people into office. But is misinformation just a random process, or is it driven by particular actors? Is it seen on both the left and right of politics? Petter Törnberg and Juliana Chueri sought to answer this in a research paper just published in The International Journal of Press/Politics. They analysed 32 million tweets from parliamentarians in 26 different countries (including the UK, US, Ireland, France,…

Read More Read More

It is interesting to see what the voters and punters think about Nigel Farage’s expectation. i am not feeling confident in calling this next election this far out, my other caveat is that say the current polls turn out be the actual election result (which history has shown to be unlikely) we have three parties on around 25% each plus or minus a few points. Under FPTP that could lead to utter carnage, where uneven vote shares could see the…

Read More Read More

TSE

One of the reasons many punters, myself included, are reluctant to bet heavily, or bet at all on the 2028 Republican nomination and/or the 2028 presidential election is that Donald Trump may try and run for a third term. Normally the bar for a change to the American constitution is quite high, however given with a compliant majority on the Supreme Court, who will go down in infamy like the Taney, court then I wouldn’t be surprised to see the…

Read More Read More

It’s time to get your entries in for the 2025 PB Predictions Competition if you haven’t already.  All entries must be in by midnight on Friday 31st January! To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 14 questions before the end of January 2025, to this or whichever thread is currently open.  If you can put the word ‘competition’ in your post it will help me collate entries.  Alternatively you can PM me your entries (but…

Read More Read More

Looking at these word clouds I know the attention of most people will be drawn to the prominence of Nigel Farage but for me the most striking thing is that you have to squint and use a magnifying glass to find Kemi Badenoch’s name on the January 2025 word cloud. For those unfamiliar with word clouds, the larger the person’s name on the word cloud the more people support that person. As a lifelong Conservative I have to admit I…

Read More Read More

My expectation is that the Republican nominee in 2028 will be whomever Donald Trump anoints as his successor and I think he’ll try and it keep within the family which brings us to Donald Trump, Jr.,’s presidential chances. As we can see in the Tweet above there’s polling that’s pretty good for Donald Trump, Jr. so you may wish to take the 36s on Betfair on him winning the 2028 election. TSE

It is often said that Sir Keir Starmer is a lucky general and with Liz Truss he has struck gold. Her Lady Jane Greyesque tenure as PM was like Black Wednesday, something the opponents of the Tories will use for years to show the Tories are unfit to run a whelk stall let alone a government. The difference between then and now is that after his election defeat Sir John Major wasn’t popping up in the media blaming everything from…

Read More Read More