I have thought the path to victory for Kamala Harris would be difficult and I think Donald Trump is still the favourite. The analysis in Harry Enten’s original Tweet implies the Biden 2020/24 coalition might not transfer 100% to Harris but also gives her scope to win votes and states that were seemingly out of reach for the Dems, even Texas might be in play, Biden had one path to victory, Harris may have more. Once we start seeing more…
Or why elections in 2024 were good ones to win It’s a theme I’ve riffed on before, but the last four years have been pretty miserable for consumers in the developed world, largely because commodity prices have risen sharply. And when commodity prices rise, then other prices (but not wages) will follow. Higher natural gas prices mean more expensive electricity, which not only squeezes household budgets, but means that fertilizer is more expensive (the Haber process), making food cost more….
it is a good sign for the Tories that Suella Braverman’s is struggling to find ten Tory MPs to sign up to her repulsive and divisive rhetoric about the LGBTQIA+ and homeless communities because her agenda is the way to achieving a general election result worse than 2024. TSE
In a close election marginal gains will be critical, J.D. Vance is turning out be the biggest duffer since John McCain picked Sarah Palin. Unless she Harris picks as her running mate Harvey Weinstein or the contents of a cat’s litter tray her choice for Veep should be better than Vance, he brings no balance to the Trump ticket and will scare off centrist voters. There is a Betfair market on who Harris will choose, but I cannot see any…
We’ve started to see some polls (conducted exclusively after Biden’s announcement) which shows Harris leading. My expectation is that the polling will get better for Harris until after the convention (where parties usually get a bounce) and she might even be favourite in this market then. TSE
A fun betting market would be to see if Trump replaces J.D. Vance before the election. Normally the choice of running mates doesn’t normally impact election results but I wonder if the choice of J.D. Vance might be an exception. His latest views are like to put off independent votes and his past comments on Trump are likely to feature heavily in Harris campaign’s ads. The comments by Vance are going to annoY Trump who demands fealty from those who…
TSE
This is what happens when your prioritise older voters at the expense of younger voters and stop being the party of aspiration. TSE