politicalbetting.com

One of the primary reasons underpinning my belief that Joe Biden will win in November is that the current iteration of the Republican, captured by Donald Trump, is too extreme for most Americans, and Joe Biden will hoover up the centre and independent ground so this finding from deep in the heart of Texas reaffirms that belief. Conservative Republicans’ attacks on gun control, abortion and climate-friendly investing practices are deeply unpopular — and costing Texas billions of dollars, according to…

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Hopefully Robert Peston’s understanding of Rishi Sunak’s comments is better than his understanding of photographs. But what a time to be alive, election announcement dates made on Loose Women. TSE

The betting on Betfair over the last 12 months. TSE

I suspect Nigel Farage will prefer to continue acting like a third rate concierge to Donald Trump than come back to lead Reform. Reform seem disorganised and Richard Tice is having to pump his own money into Reform this isn’t a party that will struggle to organise a decent election campaign. I think the value is backing less than 10.5% in this market from Ladbrokes but I will understand why others may disagree. TSE

After the unexpected defection of Natalie Elphicke last week I wouldn’t be surprised to see another defection today. Two out of the three Tory MPs to Labour defectors this parliament have occured right before PMQs. TSE

It seems every few days a new bit of polling comes out which shows Rishi Sunak matching or exceeding the dire polling Liz Truss delivered which made her the UK’s shortest serving PM. Now only 14% of the public think it is fairly/very likely that Rishi Sunak can win the next election, I would encourage this 14% of voters to open a Betfair account so seasoned punters can introduce them to the joys of gambling. In Sunak’s defence he was…

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Why it could be worse than 1997 for the Tories For me when it comes to general election the best pointers are the leader ratings and the economic ratings, I live by the mantras that it’s the economy, stupid and the leaders. It’s not looking good for Sunak’s team and the above findings show why it could be much worse for the Tories. As we can see in 1997 Ken Clarke and the Tories were preferred to Labour on the…

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With Michael Cohen starting to testify today I suspect this might be tipping point for the self confessed pussy grabber. TSE