Harris is the favourite again
If Harris and Trump bring the same energy that they both showed last night to the debates then Trump is going to struggle, badly. TSE
Mind the enthusiasm gap
This polling isn’t atypical and it makes me confident that the Democratic Party are going to at least win the popular vote in November and more than likely the electoral college Kamala Harris looks like an inspired choice, just look at how enthusiasm has surged after she became the nominee. My theory is everybody loves an elite West coast liberal lawyer. TSE
A real boost for Trump
Much like the time Captain Renault was shocked to discovered gambling was taking place in Rick’s Café Américain, I am similarly shocked to learn that RFK Jr’s, a man backed by some of Trump’s biggest supporters, is set to pull out of the White House race because the polls now show RFK Jr is taking more votes from Trump than the Democratic Party. I suspect the benefit to Trump will be minimal in votes but in a close election minimal…
The latest Tory leadership betting
In exactly a fortnight Tory MPs start voting in this election under the exhaustive ballot voting system which can be described as quasi-AV. TSE
Betfair punters remember this is a close race
I have to admit this has happened sooner than I expected, I thought the Harris lead on Betfair would widen this week due to the convention then narrow in September. I’ll reiterate this election is Trump’s election to lose but the momentum, pace Betfair, is with Harris. TSE
Oh, the humanities
When I chose my A Levels I chose Maths, Further Maths, Physics, and History which helped me become the success I am today so like Tom Calver I am shocked and worried to see people who aren’t mixing and matching their A Level choices as before. TSE
Will the Ayatollahs decide the US election?
The smart money seems to be moving to Kamala Harris as she rides a wave of Democratic party enthusiasm and her polling shows an edge in key swing states. Although one should always remember the old adage that no ordinary voter switches on to the candidates before Labor Day, there’s a feeling building that this may well be Trump’s last stand. A successful convention this week and a big speech by the Vice President may further secure the polls. Seems…
This could be Cleverly’s moment
I’ve been saying for a while the value might be with James Cleverly, somebody I respect said Cleverly could win in the way William Hague won in 1997 by being everybody’s second choice in the early rounds. This polling commissioned and released by Team Cleverly is a good move, in the past we’d hear about private polling showing X which could be dismissed as spin. Under BPC rules this polling has to be published by Wednesday. I would prefer to…