What’s tonight’s debate going to this betting market?
Unless Starmer or Sunak soil themselves on stage I expect very little change to the market. TSE
Being a convicted felon has consequences
Prior to Donald Trump’s conviction there was polling showing that a significant number of Americans wouldn’t vote for a convicted felon and this polling is an artefact of that. I expect polling like this will go further south for Trump once we get to his sentencing hearing. TSE
I think the Tories would be happy with these MRPs all things considered
One thing I remember about the YouGov MRPs from 2017 and 2019 is the first ones were closer to the actual results and I wonder if that trend will continue in 2024? These MRPs were conducted before Farage’s announcement, like Sir John Curtice I think is ultimately sub-optimal for the Tories. TSE
A tale of two seats: Maidstone and Macclesfield
Like many on here, I have spent some time sifting the constituency markets looking for value bets. Boundary changes mean that Ordnance Survey’s excellent Election Maps site is required in addition to Wikipedia. I’ve generally stayed away from the Conservative-Labour battlegrounds and focussed on seats where it’s not clear who will be the main challenger to the Conservatives or the SNP. However, I have found two seats that provide interesting case studies for how our politics have realigned in the…
Your reminder the betting markets are frequently wrong
This shows the betting on Betfair overall majority market over the last three and a half a years. We can see a Labour majority traded as low as an 8.3% chance in May 2021, now they are a 91% chance. I find it amusing that NOM is now as low as Labour’s lowest chance of winning a majority. TSE
Tonight’s polls
The Opinium poll must really sting for the Tories given how they generally have been the most favourable pollster for the Tories. If this is the beginning of a trend with Opinium then last night’s MRP might turn out to be close. TSE
Liberal Democrat: Recovery or Resurgence?
2019 wasn’t all bad for the Lib Dems. Yes, they won just 8 seats and lost their leader. Which was pretty poor. But the vote became much targeted. The Lib Dems gained more than doubled their number of second place seats (from 38 to 94). A lot of these were fairly winnable, with 30 seats being theirs on a single digit swing (at least under the boundaries at the time). Even more encouragingly, 24 of those 30 seats (and 29…
Incoming extinction level event for the Tories
My word, if this MRP is accurate we should talking about the Lib Dems as the official opposition after the election. I expect a few other MRPs over the next few weeks, if they are anything like this then we will be entering a death loop for the Tories. It may also bugger up a few Tory leadership plans. TSE