This chart fom Ipsos explains why the Tories and Labour are polling somewhere near/below the test batting average of Geraint Jones. If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box. TSE
I must confess I am a little surprised by this polling, my expectation was that Nigel Farage is seen as an asset by Reform voters but this finding by YouGov will leave Farage feeling sicker than a cyclist with piles. In January there was a poll showing that Nigel Farage had better ratings with Reform voters than Rupert Lowe but this YouGov poll shows that expectation by me was wrong, this could be the consequences of the Rupert Lowe suspension….
I think the value is with Labour but I wonder if the Reform rammy will not have an impact. I was thinking about the Lib Dems winning the the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election in 2006 despite the party falling apart at the time with Charles Kennedy ousted due to his drinking problem, and two two leadership contenders Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten mired in scandal, the latter was truly epic. We didn’t know it at the time but Chris…
Tuesday 11th13:20 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle WINNER Kopek Des Bordes14:00 Arkle Novices’ Chase WINNER Touch Me Not ?14:40 The Ultima Handicap Chase WINNER Whistle Stop Tour ?15:20 The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle Race WINNER Lossiemouth NAP16:00 The Unibet Champion Hurdle WINNER Brighterdaysahead16:40 The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Race WINNER Stencil17:20 The National Hunt Novices’ Chase WINNER Gericault Roque ? Wednesday 12th13:20 The Turners Novices’ Hurdle Race WINNER Final Demand14:00 The Brown Advisory Novices’ Steeple Chase WINNER Ballyburn NAP14:40 The Coral…
We are only seven weeks into Donald Trump’s second term of office. It is difficult to grasp that small handful of a figure given the torrent of executive orders, firings, reorganizations, torn international treaties and social media mayhem. For those with the stomach to try and follow the day-to-day progress of Trump 2.0, it is head spinning and nauseating work. Most people’s outrage processing neural engines are screeching with overload. Where do you start? Bonkers on/off tariffs that seem likely…
I actually think the value might now actually be with Reform now in this most seats at the next election market. at the time of the next election, which is potentially over four years away, will the name Rupert Lowe really move votes in a way the traditional vote deciders such as the economy or the NHS? I have my doubts. With three parties in the 20s anything could happen under the very unfair first past the post voting system….
Rupert Lowe has debunked the allegations against him and it looks like bad news for Nigel Farage, things could get very messy and I cannot say any way back for Rupert Lowe, if I were him, would I really want to work with these people? Ladbrokes have a market on whether Farage will be replaced as Reform leader in 2025, I cannot see any real value in either side given how febrile things are but PBers may disagree. TSE
The international chaos of the that past week has naturally dominated both the world news and politicalbetting.com, but let us not forget that there are other important matters to discuss… For example, we have our first answer to one of the 2025 Prediction Competition questions: Question 7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election. The answer was 152 of course – AfD easily out-performed our PB mean prediction of 136 seats. And the winners,…