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Is this the Dem Duo to take on Trump and win back power?

5/8/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

On Betfair its Harris 52%, Rice 24% and 7% the field With the Democratic convention due to take place the week after next year its getting very close to the point where Joe Biden announces who will join him on the ticket in the presidential election on November 3rd. As far as punters are concerned this is now a straight choice between the the Californian senator, Kamala Harris and the former Obama aide who worked closely with Biden in the…

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Polling Analysis: Amongst likely voters Opinium has Starmer with 4% lead over Johnson as best PM

5/8/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

A guest slot from Wulfrun Phil on latest Opinium poll Published responses to supplementary polling questions are not routinely filtered to limit responses only to those likely to vote in a General Election. That can distort interpretations of “Best PM” polling, because only the responses from those who will vote are ultimately relevant. Helpfully, Opinium provide so much rich detail in their data tables here that we can apply the filtering ourselves. In their latest poll, the full unfiltered sample…

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If You’re in a Glasshouse …..

4/8/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

During Corbyn’s leadership, Labour was relentlessly attacked by the Tories, their supporters and cheerleaders in the press for the many failings which, they said, made Labour unfit to run the country. Worth dwelling on the accusations for what they tell us about today’s Tories. A sympathiser with IRA terrorism: well-worn, repeated on every possible occasion and, combined with his associations with various dubious Palestinian groups and past statements about the causes of Islamist terrorism, the Tories happily painted a picture of…

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With 93 days to go Trump is going to have to do better than this explaining the US’s COVID19 numbers

4/8/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Latest betting gives him a 35% chance of retaining his job As the the Daily Beast reports: ..the clip appears to show that Trump has genuinely managed to convince himself that his response to the coronavirus pandemic has been effective—because he only considers partial and deceptively flattering statistics to be true. Brandishing childishly simplistic, brightly colored COVID-19 graphs presumably provided to him by aides trying to keep him happy, Trump proudly tells Axios’ Jonathan Swan that the U.S. is ‘lower than the…

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Trump’s attack on voting by post might be making his defeat more likely

4/8/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

New polling suggests he’s creating a problem for his party The huge attacks on postal voting that we are hearing from the White House at the moment could in fact lead to fewer Trump supporters actually voting than Biden ones. With the pandemic still sweeping large parts of the US many individual states have been prepared for many more voters to want to cast their ballots in the November 3rd election without exposing themselves to the risk that going to…

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Opinium finds a net 13% drop in two weeks in government’s “Coronavirus Handling” approval rating

3/8/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

And more than half think the government is coming out of lockdown too fast

Team Biden now says he won’t be announcing his VP choice until just before the convention

3/8/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The screengrab from CBS news above includes just about all the women who have been been linked with being Joe Biden’s running mate for the November 3rd presidential election. There had been hints from Biden team that an announcement could have been made this last weekend but now we hear that we have got to wait. My guess is that it will be deferred until the couple of days before the Democratic convention is due to start on August 18th….

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Some succour for Trump: Exactly four years ago today Betfair punters rated Hillary Clinton’s chances a lot higher than they do Joe Biden’s today

2/8/2020 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The chart atop this thread is from exactly four years ago showing that Betfair punters were effectively saying Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the 2016 election were 72%, as we can see in the chart below Biden’s chances are around 62%. I’ve written in the past the terrible predictive abilities of the betting markets when it comes to politics, perhaps we might see that again, after all on election night Hillary Clinton’s chances went north of 90%. Perhaps the value…

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