Latest betting gives him a 35% chance of retaining his job
As the the Daily Beast reports:
..the clip appears to show that Trump has genuinely managed to convince himself that his response to the coronavirus pandemic has been effective—because he only considers partial and deceptively flattering statistics to be true. Brandishing childishly simplistic, brightly colored COVID-19 graphs presumably provided to him by aides trying to keep him happy, Trump proudly tells Axios’ Jonathan Swan that the U.S. is ‘lower than the world,’ without elaborating. When Swan looks at the chart, it becomes clear Trump is only considering death as a proportion of coronavirus cases—not as a proportion of population, which shows the U.S. is faring very badly
There’s little doubt that the pandemic will continue to dominate the campaign up to election day on November 3rd and inevitably the media focus’s on things like the exchange above. The incumbent’s approach does not inspire confidence.