New polling suggests he’s creating a problem for his party
The huge attacks on postal voting that we are hearing from the White House at the moment could in fact lead to fewer Trump supporters actually voting than Biden ones.
With the pandemic still sweeping large parts of the US many individual states have been prepared for many more voters to want to cast their ballots in the November 3rd election without exposing themselves to the risk that going to the polling station in person might entail.
The US political site Politico is reporting on private polling on the differential response of supporters of the two big parties that the Trump attacks might be creating. It noted:
“..Republicans have become overwhelmingly concerned about mail balloting, which Trump has claimed, without evidence, will lead to widespread voter fraud. A potentially decisive slice of Trump’s battleground-state base — 15% of Trump voters in Florida, 12% in Pennsylvania and 10% in Michigan — said that getting a ballot in the mail would make them less likely to vote in November.. Trump won each of those states by a thin margin in 2016, and less than 1% of Joe Biden voters said getting a ballot mailed to them would make them less likely to vote. Overall, 53% of voters in Florida and about half in Michigan and Pennsylvania expressed health concerns about casting their ballots in person and prefer voting by mail in November.”
My experience of UK elections is that the postal voters are generally older and frailer than those who turn up in person and they are more likely to edge towards the Conservatives. I’m sure the same is replicated in the US.
Trump’s attacks might be preparing the ground for him being defeated but could cause fewer of his backers to actually cast their votes.