politicalbetting.com – Page 514 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Four days to go before election day and UK punters still rate Trump as a 34% chance

30/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

On the biggest political betting market of all time, as the Smarkets chart shows, Biden is rated as a 65% chance which given the polling and the other election predictors looks amazingly generous. The latest forecast from the Economist has Biden at 95% while Nate Silver’s site has the former VP on 89%. His national polling average has Biden on 52% with Trump on 43.2%. The state polling is in the main looked good for Biden with Florida, where there…

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Trump’s only got himself to blame for doing so badly amongst women

29/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

As I’ve argued before one of the huge hurdles that Trump has got to surmount is that the majority of those who vote in this election will be women and is perhaps the big reason why a late swing seems unlikely. All the data from recent US elections shows that there are more women than men, that they are significantly more likely to be registered and are much more likely to vote. At the midterms in 2018 10m more women…

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Blimey, I was not expecting this

29/10/2020 TSE Comments 0 Comment

I suspect Corbyn and his supporters will not go quietly. TSE

US Election Night: The Ten Counties We Need to Watch (Part One of Two)

29/10/2020 robert Comments 0 Comment

US Election Day (which is, I suppose, a misnomer given most votes have now been cast) is just five days away. Here – in order of reporting – are the first five of the ten counties punters need to watch in order to correctly estimate the likely election result. Dixville Notch – Tuesday about 5:05am UK timeFirst in the nation to report (probably). There will be seven to ten votes cast. Last time around, Clinton got 4, Trump 2, Romney…

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If the Democrats win the Presidency, the House and the Senate they’ll be in a position to make future elections easier

28/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

For starters Washington DC could be a state in it own right One of the oddities of US politics is that those who live in the capitol, Washington DC, are rated as second class citizens when it comes to elections. For they are unable to have voting representatives in the House and the Senate as is reflected in the slogan on car registration plates – see above. It used to be even worse than that and DC residents were not…

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YouGov finds that if given the chance Britain would overwhelmingly vote Trump out

28/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

With just six days to go until the US Election, a YouGov poll commissioned by Betfair finds 80% of those in the UK that expressed a preference would pick Biden. Just 20% would vote Trump. Trump does better with those who voted Leave in the referendum with 38% going for the incumbent. Amongst CON voters at GE2019 39% said they’d back Trump. That compares with the 99% support for Biden amongst those who voted for LAB or the LDs at…

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Bloomberg pumping millions into Texas and Ohio in final week dash to flip the states for Biden

28/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Texas Tribune report above features the latest move by multi-billionaire and former White House contender, Michael Bloomberg, to help Joe Biden take Texas (38 ECVs) and Ohio (18 ECVs). The paper notes: For the most part, both Biden and President Donald Trump have avoided general election campaigning in Texas. Trump hasn’t visited the state since the summer, while Biden’s last appearance was in March. In the last month, however, Biden has sent a flurry of surrogates to the state…

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I’ve finally bet on Biden as next President at a 67% chance

27/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ever since the 2020 White House Race started formally ahead of the first primary TV debates in June last year I have been very critical of Joe Biden and never thought that he would get the nomination. I wrote here many times that it was ridiculous for a man of his age to be seeking such an office and I sort of assumed that something would happen during the primary campaign that would raise doubts about him that would effectively…

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