The big challenge with Farage’s anti-lock down party is that just 15% share that view

The big challenge with Farage’s anti-lock down party is that just 15% share that view

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Savanta Comres poll finds 72% supporting the latest Johnson measures Latest polling conducted by Savanta ComRes , afte Johnson’s announcement, shows strong support for new four-week lockdown. Almost three quarters say they support the measures (72%), with just 15% saying that they oppose them. Support is highest for closing pubs, bars and restaurants, with three quarters of English adults supporting it (76%), and just one in ten opposing it (12%). Around half (47%) say they support schools, colleges, and universities staying open,…

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Why all eyes should be on Maine on Tuesday

Why all eyes should be on Maine on Tuesday

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As Maine goes, so goes the nation? I suspect apart from the senate result Maine won’t be high on the priorities of election watchers on Tuesday as the common consent is that Biden should win the state easily (he’s currently around 1/7 on Betfair to win Maine.) So why all eyes on Maine, no not because of the fantastic lobsters Maine offers but because  Maine will be the first state ever to use ranked choice voting for a Presidential election. The form…

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Why this isn’t looking like 2016 redux

Why this isn’t looking like 2016 redux

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Another example of why 2020 is unlike 2016? The betting markets are baffling to some, if the polls were reversed and Trump had the leads Biden currently has Trump’s odds on Betfair would be something close to 1.01 as opposed to Biden’s 1.5. But there’s plenty of indicators 2020 is not like 2016, like the charts above. My view is that the Dems are on course to retain the House, if they do that my hunch is that Biden also…

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The decline and fall of the GOP

The decline and fall of the GOP

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The story of 2016 was tycoon businessman Trump running against Dem nominee Clinton whose appeal I could personally never work out. Neither could the voters that mattered in the rust belt, so Clinton lost albeit by a small margin.   4 years on and the USA looks very different. In the midst of a global pandemic, Trump and Mitch McConnell have built an unholy infrastructure which threatens the very existence of the USA’s democracy. The courts Trump and Mitch McConnell have…

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The money shifts back to Biden on Betfair’s £240m next President market

The money shifts back to Biden on Betfair’s £240m next President market

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The final weekend before Tuesday’s election and a lot of activity on the UK betting markets where punters had been viewing Trump’s chances quite a bit better than the US data analysts. Above is the latest Betdata.io chart showing the Betfair exchange market where a colossal £241,037,171 has now been traded. I’m now focusing on state betting where the polling shows Biden being very competitive but where UK punters, as I have been reporting, are putting more on Trump. I’ve…

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WH2020: Key state turnout as percentage of votes cast

WH2020: Key state turnout as percentage of votes cast

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One of the extraordinary things about the the American election on Tuesday is the level of early voting. This is partly being driven by the efforts of the Republicans to curtail it and of course ongoing suggestions that Trump will try to steal the election in some form. The chart above is based on data from the the excellent election project site which is gathering huge amount of data and regular updates. The States I’ve chosen to include in the…

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The battle for Florida: Where UK punters are betting that the polls are wrong

The battle for Florida: Where UK punters are betting that the polls are wrong

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Above is the latest polling average for Florida from Nate Silver’s site where, as can be seen, Biden has been enjoying a small but significant lead. Yet when we look at the betting a different trend appears. This of the Betfair market from Betdata and Trump has been odds on favourite for quite some time. On the face of it a bet on Biden at anything longer than evens is great value – yet that doesn’t seem to be happening….

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Remember what happened at WH2004 when Guardian readers advised Ohio voters not to vote for Bush

Remember what happened at WH2004 when Guardian readers advised Ohio voters not to vote for Bush

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Seeing how close the current battle is in Ohio is a reminder to me of the effort by the Guardian at WH2004 to try to influence the election in this key swing state. The above is one of the thousands of reactions were received during the when the Guardian encouraged readers to write to voters in Clark County Ohio not to vote for Bush. This was, of course, in the aftermath of the Iraq war. This was another recation. This…

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