Why this isn’t looking like 2016 redux

Why this isn’t looking like 2016 redux

Another example of why 2020 is unlike 2016?

The betting markets are baffling to some, if the polls were reversed and Trump had the leads Biden currently has Trump’s odds on Betfair would be something close to 1.01 as opposed to Biden’s 1.5. But there’s plenty of indicators 2020 is not like 2016, like the charts above.

My view is that the Dems are on course to retain the House, if they do that my hunch is that Biden also wins the Presidency, because I don’t think there’s that level of split ticketing in America to allow the Dems to win the House and Trump win the Presidency next Tuesday.

Any student of American politics can cite many examples of a President winning the Presidency on the same day their party didn’t take the House (2012 was the most recent example, but in most of those instances, including 2012, their party wasn’t the incumbent majority in the House at the time of the election.)

For comparison the GOP won the House by 1.1% in 2016 (when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%), implying a near 4.8% GOP to Dem swing since 2016, that sort of swing at the Presidential level sees Biden become President.

In 2018 the polls largely captured the Dems lead in the House of 8.4% with the exception of Rasmussen who predicted the GOP to win the House by 1%. This tends to lend credence to the theory the polls are right.

So if the polls are right, that 1.5 on Biden looks a steal.


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