Hunger for change. The messed-up debate about free school meals

Hunger for change. The messed-up debate about free school meals

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In the midst of this pandemic, it is more than usually desirable that we should make some slight provision for the poor and destitute, who suffer greatly at the present time. Many thousands are in want of common necessaries; hundreds of thousands are in want of common comforts. A few of us, led by Marcus Rashford, are endeavouring to provide the poor with some meat and drink. The government has decided for now to set its face against helping and…

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This is starting to look like landslide territory.

This is starting to look like landslide territory.

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What does Trump have in his armoury if the voters trust Joe Biden more on the economy? A fortnight ago I said that with the pollster Quinnipiac Donald Trump was the preferred choice of the American voters to manage the economy, but it is becoming clear that with a few pollsters Trump doesn’t hold that advantage. As with the UK general election of 2015 and the EU referendum the following year it was clear (in hindsight) that the supplementaries were…

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My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race

My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race

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I’ll let you all into a little secret, it is entirely possible the stonking huge polling leads that Biden has turn out to be accurate but he still doesn’t win the Presidency. One scenario is where Biden gets votes where he doesn’t need them and Trump gets the votes where he needs them, but the scenario I’m going to look at today is that America isn’t a functioning democracy. With a pandemic on it has been obvious for some time…

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Announcing the PB WH2020 election night Zoom “party”

Announcing the PB WH2020 election night Zoom “party”

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Thanks to Barnesian, whose idea it was and whose Zoom account we will be using, there will be a PB Election night Zoom gathering. The thinking is to start just before midnight when the polls close in Florida when we should start to get real numbers about what the American people have decided and who will be the next President. This will be the biggest political night that many of us have ever experienced and it would be great to…

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The polling gets tighter and tighter in Texas yet on Betfair Biden is still a 27% chance

The polling gets tighter and tighter in Texas yet on Betfair Biden is still a 27% chance

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Above is the latest chart from FiveThirtyEight of the polling trend in Texas – the state with 38 ECVs which of it itself would be enough to give Biden the Presidency. This is where there has seen an explosion in in-person early voting which the Republican governor was prevented by the courts from trying to impede. So far a colossal 6,391,021 have voted there with 5,603,359 of them voting in person. This represents more 70% of the total percent of…

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Why Isn’t Labour Cutting Through?

Why Isn’t Labour Cutting Through?

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The Shadow Chancellor’s response to Sunak’s updated support package this week was well made. Ms Dodds has been saying much the same these past few months, if sotto voce. Perhaps because of this – and despite Starmer generally getting the better of the PM at PMQs – Labour has not broken through in the polls. The Tories’ large leads have largely evaporated so that is something. But the question remains. Why hasn’t Labour made more of an impact? This government…

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If this election follows previous ones then 10m more women will vote than men

If this election follows previous ones then 10m more women will vote than men

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And that adds to Trump’s problems One of the features of this election which has been repeatedly observed is how poorly Trump is doing with women voters particularly those with college degrees. Four years ago that segment was mostly for Trump now its switched to Biden. Above is part of the demographic breakdown in this week’s NYT/Siena poll which shows the scale of the gender gap in this election. As can be observed Trump has a 6% lead amongst men…

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The post debate betting moves just a touch to Trump

The post debate betting moves just a touch to Trump

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The Smarkets chart shows how the Biden-Trump betting has moved following the debate and as can be seen punters are just a touch more confident about the incumbent but there’s really been very little movement. What is clear is that Trump’s attempted smear effort in relation to Biden’s son hasn’t really taken off. The campaign development that could possibly end up as the “October surprise” is the failure to find the parents of 545 migrant children who have been detained…

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