Latest US spreads from @SportingIndex Biden 307-313 Electoral College votes Trump 225-231 The Zoom meeting will start just before midnight and is being hosted by Barnesian. Click this linkhttps://us02web.zoom.us/j/2694321666 You’ll then be “land” in a meeting room where you will be asked to change to your PB user name if you have one. Have a great evening.
Chart from Betdata.io of the Betfair exchange market. Meanwhile the Washington Post is reporting that an unidentified robocaller has placed an estimated 10 million calls in the past several weeks warning people to “stay safe and stay home,” spooking some Americans who said they saw it as an attempt to scare them away from the polls on Election Day. Quite how effective that will be we won’t know until overnight but given that Trump is much more reliant on one…
This time tomorrow things could be very different for him If the polls have got this right then overnight we could see what is a relatively rare event in US politics – when a sitting President fails to get re-elected after a first term. It might not be that we get enough results to come to that conclusion for a day or so but you can sure that the legion of US political commentators will be examining every small move…
We have seen enough of this Betdata.io chart over the past months and the striking thing is how consistent the betting support has been for Donald Trump. Even though he’s been falling short by quite a margin in the polls punters in the UK seem much more ready to think he will actually hold on than other forecasters. My guess is that we will not see much change here until the first results start coming in overnight tomorrow and we…
My only eve of election bet has been on Biden in Florida where the latest round of polls as collated by MSNBC above has him with a fighting chance of victory. Yet on Betfair Obama’s former VP is rated as a 44% chance with Trump on 56%. Quite why is hard to say and I have decided to have what for me is a largish bet. On Nate Silver’s site you have to go back to early April to find…
For this to work it requires a huge GOTV operation and overcoming COVID fears Just about the whole world is aware by now of how Trump intends to declare that the election was rigged against him. He’s attached a special premium to those who vote on the day compared with those 94,006,161 Americans who have already cast their ballots either by voting in person or be using the mail. His first big problem is COVID itself which at the end…
Savanta Comres poll finds 72% supporting the latest Johnson measures Latest polling conducted by Savanta ComRes , afte Johnson’s announcement, shows strong support for new four-week lockdown. Almost three quarters say they support the measures (72%), with just 15% saying that they oppose them. Support is highest for closing pubs, bars and restaurants, with three quarters of English adults supporting it (76%), and just one in ten opposing it (12%). Around half (47%) say they support schools, colleges, and universities staying open,…
As Maine goes, so goes the nation? I suspect apart from the senate result Maine won’t be high on the priorities of election watchers on Tuesday as the common consent is that Biden should win the state easily (he’s currently around 1/7 on Betfair to win Maine.) So why all eyes on Maine, no not because of the fantastic lobsters Maine offers but because Maine will be the first state ever to use ranked choice voting for a Presidential election. The form…