Betting against the GOP looks to be the value bet in Georgia

Betting against the GOP looks to be the value bet in Georgia

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Make no mistake the runoff elections for two vacant Georgia senate seats on January 5th are about the most important non-Presidential US election in recent times. This is happening because in neither race on November 3rd did a winner emerge in either election where the rule is that a 50%_ vote share is required for victory. Currently there are 48 Senators who caucus with the Democrats and fifty who caucus with the Republicans. If the Democrats won both of the…

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What’s Trump really up to?

What’s Trump really up to?

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A poker player says “Call Trump’s bluff” I think this analysis is on the right tracks. What must be dominating Trump’s mind at the moment is the possibility of facing criminal charges after the new President has been sworn on January 20th. My betting is that he won’t concede but there might be a deal of some kind and Trump is trying to exert as much pressure a he can by not doing so at the moment and really hindering…

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Punters still betting on Trump even though his legal and other efforts to stay have floundered

Punters still betting on Trump even though his legal and other efforts to stay have floundered

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Even after everything that has happened in the past few days Betfair have continued to keep their 2020 next president market open and the total amount of bets matched now exceeds £908 million. Given the terms of their market as set out on PB several times this is a nonsense and this should have been settled two weeks ago. Betfair has done its reputation no good with its handling of this. There have been two big developments in the US…

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Why I’m laying Marcus Rashford for Sports Personality Of The Year

Why I’m laying Marcus Rashford for Sports Personality Of The Year

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At Cornell University they have the world’s most powerful microscope called the transmission electron microscope, this microscope is so powerful that you can actually see images of the atom, the infinitesimally minute building blocks of our universe. You could use this microscope on some of the past winners of Sports Personality Of The Year and you still not find any personality in them. Yes I’m looking at some past winners like, inter alia, Brits Nigel Mansell and Sir Andrew Murray,…

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The Masque of the Red Death

The Masque of the Red Death

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Who are you planning to kill this Christmas? Is there an aged aunt who you haven’t seen for a while? Perhaps your parents? If you’re young enough, maybe you have your grandparents in your sights. After all, it is the time to spread peace, goodwill and Covid-19 to all mankind. But, I hear you protest, you have no intention of spreading any disease and you would be horrified to think that you might. Of course you don’t and of course you would be.   And that’s…

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That Was The Week That Was

That Was The Week That Was

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It was Anti-Bullying Week. It was also 17 years since the notorious Section 28 was repealed. The  government came out and admitted that last March it stopped funding schools anti-LGBT bullying programmes, despite knowing the harm that such bullying can cause. Perhaps they misunderstood what the “anti” bit actually means. After all the Home Secretary had some difficulty understanding what counter-terrorism meant. Maybe her staff were too scared to tell the fragrant Priti for, yes, she was found by an independent…

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Trump’s Plan D – it’s all about the Electoral College

Trump’s Plan D – it’s all about the Electoral College

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He won’t give up until all the votes are cast and counted “Show me a good loser and I’ll show you a loser”. So once said American Football coach Vince Lombardi. It is a philosophy Donald Trump takes to heart – though his record is somewhat patchier than Lomabrdi’s. Trump has a pathological, visceral fear of being seen to fail, to lose. Any other presidential candidate would have given up weeks ago, particularly as Trump has already set the narrative…

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Punters make it a 65% chance that Johnson will still be PM on Jan 1 2022

Punters make it a 65% chance that Johnson will still be PM on Jan 1 2022

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Betting chart from the Smarkets exchange Ever since the father in law of Dominic Cummings said in the summer that Boris would be out with 6 months there has been speculation that the prime minister might be ready to go once Brexit is all sorted in the New Year. Certainly he hasn’t quite looked as sharp since he contracted COVID and he has seen a colossal drop in his leader ratings. Back in April YouGov had him with a net…

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