Betting against the GOP looks to be the value bet in Georgia

Betting against the GOP looks to be the value bet in Georgia

Make no mistake the runoff elections for two vacant Georgia senate seats on January 5th are about the most important non-Presidential US election in recent times.

This is happening because in neither race on November 3rd did a winner emerge in either election where the rule is that a 50%_ vote share is required for victory.

Currently there are 48 Senators who caucus with the Democrats and fifty who caucus with the Republicans. If the Democrats won both of the special Georgia elections then there would be a tie with V-P elect Kamala Harris having the casting vote. If that happens US politics would be very different.

Both main US parties are throwing everything into this battle because it is so important. If the Democrats managed to take the seats you can see them bring a fundamental constitutional change like initially admitting Washington DC as the 51st state which would for good change the balance in the senior house.

There are many ways of betting on this. If you think the Dems can do it for both then the 3.75 that Betfair has on 48 seats looks value. Remember the odd way Betfair counts Senate seats.

Mike Smithson

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