Punters losing confidence that there’ll be a deal before the end of the year
While everything is so focused on the pandemic punters on the Smarkets betting exchange are becoming less confident that Johnson will be able to reach a deal in the few days that are left. Clearly with all the other distractions and the organisational constraints that COVID leads to it must be a massive challenge for ministers as they move into the EU end game. From the reports we have the big issue remains fishing and the accessibility of EU nations…
New polling tonight finds 78% saying they’ll comply with the latest lockdown regime
New polling just published by Savanta ComRes finds that the overwhelming proportion of people in England plan to comply with the latest lockdown regime aimed at stemming the spread of COVID. This is broadly in line with surveys at earlier times during the pandemic. The pollsters hasn’t stated this specifically but it appears to have been carried out after the latest announcement from Johnson.
Boris’s Christmas U-turn ain’t going to be good for his popularity
The holiday plans of millions are going to be messed up The real political problem with this afternoon’s announcement is that it comes only a few weeks after he had announced a relaxation for five days over Christmas. At the time this was widely criticised and thought by many to be taking too much of a risk. But on the basis of the previous announcement millions of people made their plans accordingly and were looking forward to being with loved…
The other side of the bet. The ethics of political gambling.
Gambling doesn’t exactly have a good reputation. Most Christian denominations are very chary of it (my mother’s church had only recently relaxed the ban on church tombolas when we moved to the area in 1978). It is haram for Muslims. Even among agnostics and atheists few would regard it as a laudable activity. Some of these moral objections come from the greed that the lure of large prizes can provoke. Some comes out of the potential impact on losers. We all have…
Liz Truss moves from a 100/1 shot for next PM to 33/1 in just two weeks
One cabinet figure who is getting a lot of attention today is Liz Truss, the International trade Secretary, following a speech she gave setting out her thoughts on elements in modern politics and where the Tories are different. This comes after a successful period for her in negotiating trade deals which will be so important for the UK after Brexit is fully implemented. Two weeks ago I reported here that Truss was once again topping the leader satisfaction ratings for…
For years Trump’s favourite term of abuse was “loser” – now he’s in danger of owning the brand
Those who are older enough will remember GE1997 and one of the highlights of the coverage – a live broadcast from the Enfield Southgate constituency where prominent Tory cabinet minister Michael Portillo was defending an 18,000 majority. He lost and the manner and gracious way he responded to this disastrous outcome brought accolades from all sides. Contrast that with Donald Trump in the six and a half weeks since the presidential election which saw him lose to Biden by million…
The Republicans are just holding on by fractions in the latest Georgia runoffs’ polling
The above polling averages charts from Nate Silver’s site show the tightness of the two Senate runoff races that will be held on January 5th. If the Republican lose both then the Democrats will control the Senate, the House and, of course the Presidency. These runoffs are happening because in November neither election was won by someone with 50% of the vote. Georgia, of course, was a surprise win for Biden in the White House race So much is at…