Punters losing confidence that there’ll be a deal before the end of the year
While everything is so focused on the pandemic punters on the Smarkets betting exchange are becoming less confident that Johnson will be able to reach a deal in the few days that are left.
Clearly with all the other distractions and the organisational constraints that COVID leads to it must be a massive challenge for ministers as they move into the EU end game.
From the reports we have the big issue remains fishing and the accessibility of EU nations into post-Brexit British waters. What we don’t know is whether Johnson is going to go to the wire and risk a no deal with all the potential issues that that creates especially as much of the required infrastructure has yet to be built.
Given the pandemic there is a strong case for extending the transition but Johnson might not be prepared to accept that.
In another market punters make it a 38% that there will be a no deal Brexit.