The Republicans are just holding on by fractions in the latest Georgia runoffs’ polling

The Republicans are just holding on by fractions in the latest Georgia runoffs’ polling

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The above polling averages charts from Nate Silver’s site show the tightness of the two Senate runoff races that will be held on January 5th. If the Republican lose both then the Democrats will control the Senate, the House and, of course the Presidency. These runoffs are happening because in November neither election was won by someone with 50% of the vote. Georgia, of course, was a surprise win for Biden in the White House race So much is at…

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In choosing Buttigieg for his cabinet Biden could be preparing the ground for a possible successor

In choosing Buttigieg for his cabinet Biden could be preparing the ground for a possible successor

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With the inauguration on January 20th getting closer Joe Biden’s going through the process almost everyday of announcing new members of his team. Of all of them so far the most well-known name came yesterday with the choice of Pete Buttigieg to be the transportation secretary. This should give the 39 year old former Mayor of South Bend Indiana a continuing media presence something he did very successfully on behalf of the President elect during the election campaign. Time and…

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The Small Print

The Small Print

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When you bet on football, by and large you know whether you’ve won or lost.  There are rules.  There’s a referee.  You can argue about whether a goal should have been given but you can’t argue about whether it was given.  There is little room for interpretation most of the time. Betting on politics is not always so straightforward.  The refereeing is more complicated.  Even when dealing with something as granular as vote-counting, the participants can and do sometimes argue…

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Boris’s big Christmas gamble

Boris’s big Christmas gamble

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It is a very fine gamble for Christmas – not actually tightening the regulations that can be legally enforced but rather toughening up the guidance for how people should operate during the 5 designated days of the Christmas period. You can see how conflicted ministers have been because if there had been any more tougher controls then those affected could say said they had planned Christmas and in many cases laid out money on what had been announced previously. But…

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Remember when Betfair settled a US election market too early and paid out on the loser?

Remember when Betfair settled a US election market too early and paid out on the loser?

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Maybe this experience was behind their caution this time? Back in January 2012 all the political betting interest was on the caucuses in Iowa the first state to decide in the race to choose the Republican nominee to take on Barack Obama. On the night the big news was that Mitt Romney had squeezed a victory by a margin of of just eight votes over Rick Santorum pictured above. This was based on information from the state party HQ where…

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Punters remain confident that there will be a deal

Punters remain confident that there will be a deal

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The trend on the Smarkets exchange is very clear – punters now rate it a 75% chance that there will be a deal by the end of the month and certainly the apparent concession by Boris appears to have gone down well in Brussels. The chart shows the ups and downs in betting opinion over the 11 months and all the talk a few days ago that no deal was inevitable has changed. Like all bets of this nature iit…

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The Electoral College Vote goes to Biden who, as expected, secures 306 votes

The Electoral College Vote goes to Biden who, as expected, secures 306 votes

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And Betfair finally pays out What has been by far the biggest political betting market ever was finally resolved overnight when the Electoral College met and Biden is now officially the President-elect. But there is another hurdle. The results get reported to Congress on January 6th and if members in both houses decide to put it to the vote then that will take place in both the House an Senate. The former should be fine for Biden but the Senate…

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The Ballad of No Deal “WTO” Brexit

The Ballad of No Deal “WTO” Brexit

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Please allow me to introduce myself, I’m a ma … I’m an interesting and important character. I don’t exist, will never exist, yet I lurk in the minds of millions and am discussed and written about constantly. Most fear me, some worship, only the hardiest, most detached souls are indifferent. Am I the Devil? No. As I say, I don’t exist. The Devil might. And He is not trading at a ridiculously short price in the current betting markets. Who…

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