The trend on the Smarkets exchange is very clear – punters now rate it a 75% chance that there will be a deal by the end of the month and certainly the apparent concession by Boris appears to have gone down well in Brussels.
The chart shows the ups and downs in betting opinion over the 11 months and all the talk a few days ago that no deal was inevitable has changed.
Like all bets of this nature iit is important to read the precise rules which are here:
If the UK and EU sign a trade deal between the 16th January 2020 and the 31st December 2020 this market will be settled as yes. If the trade deal is agreed in this period but comes into force at a later date, this market will be settled for yes. This market covers any trade deal, either sector by sector or a complete deal. If no trade deal is signed in this period between the EU and UK this market will be settled for no.
Smarkets also have a market on no deal which has slightly different odds and might offer you better value.