Because the Tories for the foreseeable future are set to resemble a clown show I expect most of Sir Keir Starmer’s problems this parliament to come from his left flank. One issue will be one of George Osborne’s many popular policies, the two children cap on child benefit. There are already four amendments planned for the King’s Speech votes to remove the cap but as the YouGov polling shows there’s real support even with Labour voters for keeping the cap….
Could an alliance between Jenrick and Braverman seal the leadership for one of them? I’ve been saying for a while that Suella Braverman is a clear lay in this market and it appears a growing number of Tory MPs agree with that assessment. The only question is will be a help or hindrance to Robert Jenrick to have the backing of Suella Braverman? I suspect it will be a hindrance with Tory MPs who participate in the first stage of…
TSE
This polling confirms my theory that Rishi Sunak erred in holding a July election, had he waited until the autumn then Nigel Farage would have focussed his time and energies on being Donald Trump’s personal proctologist rather than focussing on the UK general election. Reform supporters must be toasting Sunak’s timing with a glass or two of Bucks Fizz. This will be the stat that will haunts Sunak. Nigel Farage’s entry into the campaign helped solidify the voting intentions of…
I thought the Democratic nominee would be one of those relatively risk free markets where Biden would be the nominee with a few savers on Harris and Whitmer. I know I am not the only PBer who will end up in the poorhouse if Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom become the Dem nominee or if we see President Obama or President Newsom in January 2025. This betting market is aging me. If you’re entering this market as a newbie, I…
I suspect Sunak will continue as leader until his replacement is elected, from a betting point of view the bookies are quite clear interim leaders do not count as Sunak’s successor so don’t go wasting your money on IDS replacing Sunak. As an aside Jim Callaghan remained as Labour leader for eighteen months after his general election defeat to the Tory party’s first woman leader. TSE
If Barack Obama comes out and says this publicly then it is game over for Biden if it already isn’t, Betfair has moved sharply. In my humble opinion other than Jill Biden only Barack Obama could persuade Biden to withdraw. The Betfair market movement today seems to back that up. TSE
I think punters are slowly realising that two failed assassination attempts on Gerald Ford didn’t help him win the 1976 presidential election. The frequent crossovers between Harris and Biden is fascinating. TSE