The next London mayoral election is scheduled to take place in 2028 and under first past the post anything could happen, it is entirely possible the winning candidate polls sub 20% as the centre-left vote fractures. I cannot see any value here other than say a cheeky tenner on Jeremy Corbyn at 20/1 or Ant Middleton at 12/1. TSE PS – It might be in Labour’s interest to lose the London mayoral election to the Tories or Reform on a…
A former special adviser once observed to me one of the main advantages of being in government is that you get to set the agenda in a way no other party can, they likened it to winning the toss in every cricket match or having first serve in every game of tennis but Sir Keir Starmer appears not to have learned this lesson yet. No wonder the public thinks Reform are setting the agenda and until Starmer can change the…
We have the Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse by-election on Thursday, in 2021 the SNP polled 46.2% in this constituency but things are different today with the surge of Reform and whilst the SNP lead in the polls it isn’t impressive as it was in 2021. That said I think the value might be the 16/1 on them polling between 45% and 50% with Ladbrokes because they are appealing for tactical votes and it might work this time against a Farage…
This polling reminds me why I am glad I didn’t become a politician. The public want champagne and caviar but want to pay Tesco meal deal prices. TSE
TSE
Series introduction This is the first in a series looking at the challenges and opportunities for each of the 7 main Great Britain parties in turn. Before looking at the situation for Labour in detail, we will review what happened in the 2024 election UNS is dead In recent elections, we have seen Scotland having very different elections than the rest of the UK. In 2024, this widened with a large divergence in different areas of England as well, which…
There are two consistent themes to the polls for as long as I have been following them is that the polls overestimate how many people will actually vote in UK general election and that non-voters do not turn out to vote in the levels they say they will. The only two times in UK elections when that has hasn’t been the case has been the Scottish independence referendum and the Brexit referendum. So my initial thought was to think Reform’s…
I suspect a lot of attention will be on how support from independence increases if Farage becomes Prime Minister but we saw similar polling prior to Brexit and if Boris Johnson became Prime Minister but hypothetical polling has shown in the past it is regularly utterly bobbins. I suspect the next Scottish independence referendum is likely to be at least a decade away. As for the next Holyrood election this could be a bit of a mess, even though the…