The next London mayoral election is scheduled to take place in 2028 and under first past the post anything could happen, it is entirely possible the winning candidate polls sub 20% as the centre-left vote fractures. I cannot see any value here other than say a cheeky tenner on Jeremy Corbyn at 20/1 or Ant Middleton at 12/1.

TSE

PS – It might be in Labour’s interest to lose the London mayoral election to the Tories or Reform on a low vote share one year before the 2029 general election. If say Reform or the Tories win on around 20% of the vote whilst the centre-left poll a combined 60% then discussions will turn to changing the voting system to something like the alternative vote system. My expectation is that there will not be enough time for legislation to be passed before the next election to change the voting system so talks will turn to an (in)formal voting alliance amongst the centre-left to keep out the right/Farage.