We should all be familiar with the fable of The Scorpion and the Frog, looking at the above chart above it is the Tory nature to dispose of their leaders pretty quickly this millennium unless you’re an exceptional talent like David Cameron. Whilst Kemi Badenoch’s ratings are improving what will force Tory MPs to oust her are these facts When you consider how badly Sir Keir Starmer, Labour, and Rachel Reeves are doing in the polls where they are outdoing…
It feels like on social media the poll that gets most attention each week is the Find Out Now poll because they are the pollster who are consistently showing Labour doing the worst. Being an outlier doesn’t mean there’s an automaticity on being wrong, for in the 1990s and early 2000s ICM frequently produced polls which were outliers yet ICM were the most accurate pollster at the general elections. I have previously written on why I and others consider Find…
An observation that was made to me earlier on this week is that everybody in the Labour party is acting like Sir Keir Starmer will not make it to the next general election, he may not even make it to the end of 2026. The polling is excellent for Ed Miliband but the alliance between Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner could be the game changer for the Health Secretary. TSE
One of the factors that helped ensure Jeremy Corbyn led Labour to their worst general election defeat since 1935 was his response to the Salisbury poisonings which saw his ratings transform from cuddly grandpa for somebody who seemed to be at best hopelessly naive when it comes to Russian malevolence. Nigel Farage and Reform might also have a Russian problem when it comes to perceptions around Russia, we know one of his former MEPs is spending time in prison for…
I’ve been tracking this from Ladbrokes for a while and Professor Sir John Curtice’s comments from October still underpin my thinking as you rarely make money betting against Sir John. If you think if the Tories are improving in the polls you might want to back the 100% return in 3 and a half years time if you fancy tying your money up for that long. TSE
I don’t expect Robert Jenrick to defect any time soon, my logic is based on the assumption despite Kemi Badenoch’s ratings the Tories are still going to be shellacked senseless in next May’s elections. When that happens I suspect the Tories will oust her and Robert Jenrick has a strong chance of becoming leader next summer, defecting to Reform will feel unappetising. I suspect this is political shithousery from Reform to destabilise Kemi Badenoch as she and her ratings are…
These ratings should cheer up Kemi Badenoch but I would caution getting to excited as her ratings have gone from dire to mere appalling. Based on these ratings the Tory party is still on course to become the MySpace of political parties under her watch. A good metric on these types of question is how well or badly the leader is doing compared to their party, right now Badenoch is polling on parity with her party’s vote share in the…
Betfair have opened a market on whether Donald Trump will run for the a third term in 2028. The rules of the bet are very clear but for the time being I will avoid this market, I do not have any confidence in Trump and the Republican party to observe the constitutional and democratic norms, see the day of infamy that was January 6th 2021, and how Trump has pardoned those violent insurrectionists. We do have this curious position where…