Ordinarily when a Labour leader polls circa 33% at a general election it triggers a leadership election however in one of those statistical quirks like Sir Donald Bradman’s test average, no matter how many times you look at it thinking it must be a mistake it turns out be right, Starmer won 411 seats and a 174 seat majority with a 33.7% share of the vote. The story in yesterday’s Times about Starmer looking to change the voting system for…
The survey was conducted Aug. 17-20 using a voter list of 801 registered voters nationwide. It was carried out by Braun Research and has a simple sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The bulk of the fieldwork took place before the Democratic Party convention so it is possible the next poll from this pollster could see an even bigger Harris lead. TSE
It’s late on 6th November 2024. CNN’s election map guru, John King, has finally filled in the slowest counting counties in the crucial swing states. The result is in… …And neither Trump nor Harris has an electoral college majority. Both main party candidates have failed to secure the magic 270 delegates required either because it is a tie at 269 a piece or because a third party candidate has secured a decent result. So, what happens now? On 9th February…
After the shellacking the SNP received last month and coupled with the fact the SNP will have been in power for nineteen years in May 2026 it feels inevitable that the SNP would lose the next Holyrood election but a poll showing them to be the largest party in Holyrood in 2026 seems a bit counter-intuitive. I respect Norstat as a pollster, going back to their Panelbase days, but any poll that shows Reform winning eight seats at Holyrood screams…
Graph from Betdata.io TSE
Cards on the table, I think Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States. At the end of the Democratic National Convention, it’s apparent that the handover of the baton from Biden to Harris has gone more smoothly than anyone predicted, or had a right to expect. A party, more used to thinking of itself as a fractious coalition, is waking up to headlines which declare “Democrats in Array”, and is evidently enjoying the experience. And Harris…
My strategy for laying Kemi Badenoch in the race to succeed Sunak is that Tory MPs will ensure she isn’t in the final two but if that assumption turns out to be wrong then I will be going to the poorhouse. YouGov have an excellent track record in Tory leadership elections so I trust this polling implicitly, in some of the other head to heads it shows Robert Jenrick might be misunderestimated by the betting markets TSE
If Harris and Trump bring the same energy that they both showed last night to the debates then Trump is going to struggle, badly. TSE