Lib Dems and Labour neck and neck in the betting
Could there be a sensation in the Dunfermline and West Fife where voting closed at 10pm and the count is now going on? The prices are changing by the second. Mike Smithson
Question Time – How the Huhne-Campbell prices changed
The above chart shows how punters on the Betfair market changed their view of the two front runners while and immediately after the Lib Dem Question Time debate was taking place. The numbers are the implied probability of success based on the betting prices. What is starting is how the Huhne price tightened sharply in the minutes after the programme. Mike Smithson
How much can we rely on YouGov?
Is Chris Huhne right to start dancing in the streets? After an extraordinary day on the Lib Dem leadership markets and the busiest forty-eight hours since PB.C started the big question is how much can we rely on YouGov – the internet pollster? After the firm’s final poll before the December announcement on David Cameron’s election I raised my doubts about the YouGov approach. What worried me was that the same group of people, in that case Tory members, was…
Huhne set to win – YouGov
Second YouGov poll on Lib Dem members now released I have just received this from Peter Kellner – boss of YouGov. The attached data has just been released, from our latest poll of Lib Dem members. Huhne: 38%: Campbell 34%: Hughes 27% The run-off figures, eliminating Hughes are:Huhne 52%: Campbell 48%. According to the accompanying spreadsheet the survey took place from February 7-9 and the client was John Stevens. The number of members in the sample was 401. This is…
By-election betting to continue until the declaration
Labour 0.07/1 to hold the seat in Gordon’s back yard If there is going to be a shock in today’s by-election in Dunfermline and West Fife then the first indications should be seen on the betting exchange markets. For if there is just a sniff that something might be happening around the campaign HQs of the main parties then information will seep out and punters will try to cash in. All unmatched betting exchange bets are cancelled at 7am so…
My informant sticks by his YouGov information
The informant behind my article on the private YouGov survey on the Lib Dem leadership has come back to me. He says he has rechecked his source (who he trusts absolutely) and is convinced that the YouGov figures are genuine. It will be noted that the comment in Peter Kellner’s email was very specific – “that all the figures that you, and Guido Fawkes, attributed yesterday to our recent poll of Lib Dem members are wrong”. There seem to be…
YouGov says the “leak” was wrong
But Times husting survey has Huhne ahead I have just recieved the following email from Peter Kellner, the head of YouGov. Mike In common with other polling organisations, YouGov has a strict policy of not commenting on purported leaks of private surveys. However, on this occasion, I have been authorised by our client to say that all the figures that you, and Guido Fawkes, attributed yesterday to our recent poll of Lib Dem members are wrong. In order to prevent…
Could a good Dunfermline showing be Ming’s salvation?
Populus poll boost for Lib Dems on eve of by-election With just a day to go before the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election the betting markets seem to think that the Lib Dems, in spite of all the recent troubles, look set to beat the SNP and hold onto their second place of last May. Using “advanced Lib Dem bar chart technology” and a guest appearance by Charles Kennedy the party seems to have had a good campaign. There was…