“Ming just 6% ahead” Information has been leaked to me this afternoon about the YouGov Lib Dem members poll which has been the subject of much speculation. My informant tells me that the survey was commissioned by a wealthy backer of Ming Campbell who is also a big donor and he told me his name. I was given the figures of Campbell 40%: Huhne 34% and Hughes 24% on first preferences. My information is that while the Hughes second preferences…
Where’s the YouGov and Populus polling information? This morning I had thought that there would be two stories competing for attention – the February survey by Populus for the Times and that much-trailed YouGov poll of members on the Lib Dem leadership. There’s no sign of the latter in the online versions of the papers and the Times report on the Populus survey focuses on attitudes to the Muslim cartoon row with no mention of the latest party shares. Maybe…
Candidates poll shows the ex-MEP is getting closer A poll of 50 Lib Dem candidates for the More4 News on digital TV has Campbell with 22 backers, Hunhe with 17 and Hughes on just 7. As yet we have no further details of the survey except that those who took part in the survey were “candidates at the last General Election in marginal constituencies”. But this is not a survey of Lib Dem members and it is hard to to…
Punters pile on mid-2007 exit following Telegraph report The never ending saga on the biggest question in UK politics took another turn over the weekend with reports from Patrick Hennessy, Political Editor of the Sunday Telegraph, that Tony plans to hand over to Gordon in “next summer”. In his piece Hennessy writes: “..Mr Blair faces many pitfalls between now and then, however, notably over the battle to get his controversial package of school reforms into law in the face of…
What are we to make of these private surveys? If you are challenging to unseat the incumbent party in a by-election rule number one is to get over that you have the momentum and represent the only way of causing an upset. So with both the Lib Dem and the SNP seeking to win on Thursday in the fight in the Dunfermline and West Fife seat in the shadow of the Forth Bridges it’s no wonder that on the weekend…
Will even a modest performance be spun as a “victory”? With hundreds of activists from the four main parties heading to Dunfermline this weekend ahead of Thursday’s Westminster by-election there can be no doubt, surely, that Labour is going to hang on. The party got 20,111 last May to the Lib Dems’ 8,549, the SNP’s 8,026 and just 4,376 votes for the Tories. This contest has got a “Labour with a substantially reduced majority on a low turnout” written all…
YouGov could settle it within a few days There’ve been big moves in the Lib Dem leadership betting following the claims by Camp Campbell that Chris Huhne had reneged on a deal not to stand and a confident performance by the ex-MEP on Question Time last night. The latest prices have Campbell out from 0.5/1 to 0.72/1 with Huhne in from 3/1 to less than 2/1. The backers have been moving further away from Simon Hughes who has drifted to…
Brown’s price tightens after “hatred bill” defeats Whenever Tony Blair seems to be having a bad time of it punters flock to bet on Gordon Brown as his successor. For the main consideration in this market is not whether the Chancellor will make it to Number 10 but how quickly it will happen. Punters like to bet on something knowing it’s going to be resolved within a reasonable time-scale because the last thing they want is to lock their stake…