Best price tightens to 0.49/1 There’s been a further swing to Menzies Campbell in the Lib Dem leadership betting overnight and the best you can now get is 0.49/1. With just a month until the result is known how good a bet is this? Do any of the other candidates stand a chance? The last full leadership poll of party members took place while Charles Kennedy was still leader and was published only a few hours before the resignation was…
Cameron gets approval rating of nearly 2-1 The results are out of a massive poll involving face to face interviews with more than 2,000 people by MORI. The main party shares based on those “certain to vote” are CON 40% (+1): LAB 38%(-1): LD 17%(+2). The comparisons are with the Sun Mori poll eleven days ago. Asked how they saw David Cameron’s performance as Tory leader 31% were positive and 17% against. In an excellent commentary on the MORI site…
But why are men still unconvinced? One of the main reasons why Tony Blair came to power in 1997 and was returned in 2001 and 2005 was his success with the female vote. From a situation where women were traditionally more Conservative than men the political gender balance was completely changed. But might that all be going back? For from the latest detailed polling data there are signs that the Tory recovery is coming from a huge change in female…
Does Blunkett really know what’s going on? The comments by the twice sacked ex-cabinet minister, David Blunkett, that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have reached “a new understanding” that will see a changeover at Number 10 within two years have set the Blair departure markets going. In a BBC interview Blunkett said; “My sense is that there is a new understanding – yes..And it is good because anybody with any ounce of understanding of politics knows that when Tony Blair…
.. A tale of two polls and two polling methodologies A new poll by ICM for the Sunday Telegraph this morning should ease some of the jitters within the Lib Dems. After Friday’s YouGov survey putting their share down at 13% the ICM numbers out today are CON 37: LAB 36: LD 18. The only change on Tuesday’s Guardian ICM survey is a one point drop for the Lib Dems. The timing of the polls meant that all the interviewing…
Few crumbs for party in ICM data feast The pollster, ICM, has now made available 41 pages of detailed data on its Lib Dem leadership poll that appeared in the Guardian on Wednesday. It will be recalled that the survey was unusual in that it was carried out online and part involved respondents watching video clips of the candidates. Even allowing for the fact that the sample was very small the results were shocking and showed the challenge the party…
In the article on the Guardian ICM poll on Tuesday I made certain comments in relation to getting data from the pollster ICM about a poll in the News of the World earlier in the month. I said that I had requested the full data-set which had not been forthcoming. It now transpires that the email address I used to contact Nick Sparrow of the firm was incorrect and did not get delivered. I also made the statement “ICM is…
Labour back in the lead even though the Tories make progress YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph has the Lib Dems share dropping by 5 points with almost all of that going to Labour. The result is that while the Tories continue to make progress the major beneficiary of the problems in the Lib Dems has been Tony Blair’s party. The party shares with changes on last month are CON 39%(+1): LAB 40%(+4): LD 13%(-5). It should be noted that…