Ignorant media boost Hughes in the betting Four Mondays ago Jackie Ashley wrote a sharp attack in her Guardian column on the influence of betting on politics in the UK and singling out this site in particular for the role it has. But one thing Ashley ought to consider is that those who want to bet successfully on political outcomes have to understand polls – a skill that appears to be sadly lacking amongst many of her colleagues. For those…
..but the Dunfermline victor down 8 points on General Election Lots more for poll watchers this morning with a new YouGov poll showing with changes on the last survey a fortnight ago CON 37%(-2): LAB 39%(-1): LD 15%(+2). On the Lib Dem leadership race the poll shows that amongst all voters Campbell was backed by 18%, Hughes by 16% and Huhne by just 10%. Among party supporters it was Hughes 34%, Campbell 21% Huhne 13%. This has caused a little…
Anthony Wells – “Tories need a 7.1% swing to secure a majority” The founder of UK PollingReport, Anthony Wells, (seen with Guido at last month’s PB.C party), has today published a down-loadable guide to the new parliamentary boundaries. Anybody tempted to bet on the Tories securing most seats at the General Election should read it because according to Anthony’s study Labour would have won 10 seats fewer at the last election, the Tories 14 seats more and the Lib Dems…
A report on the reaction in the betting markets While his party’s spinners were trying to confine the loss of Dunfermline and West Fife as just being down to “local issues” the veteran Derbyshire MP, Dennis Skinner said it was “the biggest by-election upset he had ever witnessed.” The immediate betting reactions have been:- Gordon Brown less likely to be the next Labour leader. There’s been an easing in his price from 0.41/1 to 0.45/1. The view is that if…
How do you square Dunfermline with the national polls? According to the latest round of surveys from all the main pollsters Labour is performing at or above what it got at the May 2005 General Election. Yet on Thursday its support collapsed and we saw such a massive swing to the Liberal Democrats – which has been recording drops of upto 10 points on last year. From what I can gather Dunfermline was the first occasion in modern times when…
Did the Cameron “flip-flop” attack bring Iraq into the campaign? Just 19 hours before polls opened in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election Tony Blair produced a leaflet at Prime Minister’s Questions to reinforce his attacks on David Cameron for flip-flopping. It had been delivered to the seat’s most famous resident, Gordon Brown, and Blair quoted comments from it on the Tory policy on Iraq. This completely undermined David Cameron and there was general agreement that the Prime Minister’s performance…
Was the Chancellor the big loser? The next Labour leader betting markets could be interesting over the next few days as politicians and punters digest the sensational by-election loss to the Lib Dems of the seat where Gordon Brown lives. Over the past three weeks there has been a sharp move back to Gordon in the betting on who will replace Tony Blair – his price tightening from 0.53/1 to 0.42/1. This has been driven by the new view at…
Could there be a sensation in the Dunfermline and West Fife where voting closed at 10pm and the count is now going on? The prices are changing by the second. Mike Smithson