The informant behind my article on the private YouGov survey on the Lib Dem leadership has come back to me. He says he has rechecked his source (who he trusts absolutely) and is convinced that the YouGov figures are genuine.
It will be noted that the comment in Peter Kellner’s email was very specific – “that all the figures that you, and Guido Fawkes, attributed yesterday to our recent poll of Lib Dem members are wrong”.
There seem to be two explanations: That I have been misled or that my informant is correct and the percentages he quoted were close.
Quite often with surveys provisional figures are produced. This happened in the last published YouGov survey of Lib Dem members on January 7th when there was a partial release of information based on a limited sample in the Daily Telegraph on the morning of the day that Charles Kennedy resigned. Two days later the final figures were produced based on the full sample and there were some minor changes.
On the other hand I might have unwittingly been used to spread false information. I pass this on for PB.C readers to make their own judgements.