I am a fan of Torsten Bell, whilst I do not agree with his politics, he was thoughtful during his stint at the Resolution Foundation so I am not surprised with this promotion to help assist with the next budget. Given the heavy emphasis Labour have made of Rachel Reeves being the first female Chancellor then in the short term I cannot see a man replacing her. If we do get a second Labour term (and anything is possible under…
When will the Aberdeenshire hotelier’s second term end? The last few days the internet became very excited about Donald Trump absence and health. I am not reading too much into this, for example speculating on someone’s health based on an enhanced photo is like relying on a Scottish subsample, it is inherently unreliable. There are plenty of markets on when Trump’s second term will end/will he complete a full term, these are markets I am avoiding because I think it…
During Iain Duncan Smith’s tenure as Tory leader the BBC pointed out the inaccuracies in his curriculum vitae was inaccurate and it helped damage him and on a cumulative basis helped end his leadership. Like Rachel Reeves and her CV issues I don’t think this will be a career ender on its own but other issues will. Any Tory MP looking to oust Kemi Badenoch have more ammunition. My expectation for exit being in 2026 hasn’t changed because of this…
In two significant ways, Reform UK supporters, and that subset which knows how to hold a writing implement and thus become Reform UK voters, are like senior military officers. First, they only want to hear things that they already know to be true. Second, they assume that anything they don’t personally understand must be simple. Immigration, and particularly informal migration via channel crossings in small boats, has been successfully weaponised to such a degree that it is now perceived as…
My expectation for 16 and 17 year olds will be much lower than the rest of the electorate but if this polling is close to the actual result at the next election then this is good news for Reform as Labour’s lead over Reform becomes a rounding error. As I predicted the party most damaged by this new party is the Greens. I suspect a lot of attention will be drawn to Nigel Farage having better ratings than Sir Keir…
Looking at this list from Ladbrokes I think Corbyn has a more plausible route to become mayor that people who according to Ladbrokes have a better chance of winning than Corbyn. I can see Corbyn’s brand of politics appealing to London in 2028 so at 25/1 I feel a trading bet is in order but I understand why punters might want to swerve this bet. TSE Update – PBer NigelB suggested this tip yesterday too.
Nigel Farage has gone out of his way to avoid associating with members of the BNP and Tommy Robinson because the polling in the past has shown those two have toxic ratings and this More In Common poll shows the risks of the Tories and Reform making Lucy Connolly a martyr. If Labour are to win the next election they are going to win the next election they are likely to need centre left voters to tactically vote for them…
Later tonight the studio lights at the Antenna Media Centre in Nottingham will be switched off. They will not be turned on again. Today marks the last day of broadcasting by Notts TV, part of a pioneering experiment in hyper-local TV services first launched by Jeremy Hunt under the Coalition government. The channel, which broadcasts a small number of hours of local news, sport, culture and current affairs debates per week, is available on Freeview channel 7 (the old BBC…