ICM has Boris just 2% ahead

ICM has Boris just 2% ahead

After the YouGov surveys showing Boris with 12% and 10% lead respectively there’s an ICM poll out tonight for the Guardian that suggests the race is much closer. When second preferences are taken into account Boris has a margin of just 2% The first round prediction has Johnson 42%: Livingstone 41%: Paddick 10% What will be particularly pleasing for the Johnson camp is that he is beating Ken on second preferences. The Guardian notes “….Among Liberal Democrats, 43% say they…

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Obama takes 2-point lead in Pennsylvania

Obama takes 2-point lead in Pennsylvania

PPP poll shows him ahead by 45-43, trails 49-38 among white voters A poll out today for Public Policy Polling in Pennsylvania shows Obama now leading in a state where Clinton has been enjoying comfortable leads. As ever though, the question is how reliable PPP is as a pollster, and whether this is a reliable indicator or should be taken with a pinch of salt. Obama is currently available at 3.1 to win the Keystone State on 22 April, so…

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Is Brian Cowen going to be Ireland’s Gordon Brown?

Is Brian Cowen going to be Ireland’s Gordon Brown?

The Teflon Taoiseach calls it a day – Finance Minister Cowen 1.06 to succeed him Irish politics is set for major change following Bertie Ahern’s announcement today that he will step down as Prime Minister and Fianna Fáil leader on 6th May. Ahern has been a giant of the modern Irish scene, having been Taoiseach since 1997 and the first three-time election winner since De Valera, as well as playing a major role in the peace process in Northern Ireland….

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Did this cost Norris votes in 2004?

Did this cost Norris votes in 2004?

What will the absence of a Jarvis factor mean for this time? Even before the opinion polls swung against him I had doubts over whether Ken could secure a third term because of the special circumstances of his 2004 victory. Ken’s margin then was not overwhelming and might have been smaller but for the day job of the Tory challenger, Steve Norris. The election then was always going to be a tough ask for Ken because to win he needed…

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Will Harriet’s body armour be the first PMQ question?

Will Harriet’s body armour be the first PMQ question?

Week 3 of Ladbrokes PMQ market and the stand-ins get the limelight If reports are correct then this week’s PMQs at their regular Wednesday noon slot will see Boris leading for the Tories with Harriet Harman answering questions as Gordon’s stand-in. This, of course, could be an April fool but several bloggers are speculating about the line-up. Gordon will be in Romania for the Nato summit and Brendan Brogan in his Mail blog seems to be confirming that Harriet will…

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Is Ken starting to clutch at straws?

Is Ken starting to clutch at straws?

Do the “April fool” video and stealing policies smack of desperation? With just over a month to go and yesterday’s YouGov poll confirming that Livingstone has a lot of ground to make up, it’s starting to look as though the Mayor recognises the scale of his task means that almost any tactic can be tried in order to win votes. At last night’s debate, he said to Johnson: “I’m stealing your policies. What sort of idiot, when they hear a…

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Will this rhetoric keep Hillary in the race?

Will this rhetoric keep Hillary in the race?

Can she make Pennsylvania about whether she can continue? Unlike many I remain to be convinced that Hillary’s nomination prospects are totally doomed. She has shown when the chips have been down that women, particularly older ones, will flock to back her if she can make the contest an issue of whether she stays in or not. The current idea that the party is ganging up on her to stop her proceeding could resonate well in the next primary in…

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It’s Seven Daves from ComRes

It’s Seven Daves from ComRes

Con 38 (-3) Lab 31 (+1) Lib Dem 17 (n/c) A poll out tonight by ComRes for the Independent shows a lead of seven points for the Conservatives, down by four since the previous poll. Fieldwork was 28-30 March and the unweighted base was 1004 respondents. The Tories are down by three on 38 percent, Labour up by one to 31, and the Lib Dems are unchanged on 17 – it remains to be seen what impact Nick Clegg’s interview…

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