Why PBC is breaking the embargo A YouGov poll of 678 Lib Dem party members that will be released later this evening by Sky News has Nick Clegg beating Chris Huhne by 56% to 44% in the membership ballot. But the race could still be close because 52% of those questioned have not voted yet only 52% of those questioned had already voted and 24% said they were undecided. The pollster built up a good reputation for party membership polls…
The Saturday columnists make grim reading for Gordon After a week in which the parliamentary highlight was Vince Cable’s joke comparing the Prime minister to Mr. Bean it’s the day for the Saturday columnists to get their teeth into the fluid political situation. By far the most devastating read for Gordon is from Matthew Parris is the Times – an article that would carry even more weight if the writer had not been so consistently hostile to Brown over many…
The Lib Dems jump 4 points Ipsos-Mori has just released its latest poll which follows the recent YouGov and ComRes surveys and shows a big increase in the Conservative lead. The shares, with comparisons on the last survey almost a month ago shows CON 41% (+1): LAB 32% (-3): LD 17% (+4). The survey was carried out by phone from November 23rd-27th so would have caught the first part of Labour’s dodgy donations scandal. The Tories will be delighted that…
The Contest for Luton One of Anthony Wells’ contributors described Luton as “to be frank, a dump.†Having recently moved there, I’d have to say that while that is probably a fair description of what must be the most badly designed town centre, anywhere in the Home Counties, it’s not a fair description of an entire town of nearly 200,000 people. There is a great deal of good private housing around Wardown Park, Stopsley, the Old and New Bedford Roads,…
What if the fieldwork had taken place yesterday? As has been noted often here a key element when assessing a poll is the timing of the field-work. In fast-moving political situations like we’ve seen this week the “when” can play a critical role. So the overnight YouGov poll in today’s Telegraph has to be looked at in terms of when it took place. The figures, as discussed on the previous thread, were with changes on the previous survey from the…
Is it as “devastating as we were led to believe? Earlier this evening this appeared on the Daily Telegraph blog – “Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Telegraph is, to quote our polling guru Anthony King, ‘one of the most devastating I’ve ever seen’. That’s quite a verdict from a man who has been looking at these things for four decades.” This set peoples’ imaginations racing especially as the last poll to publish, ComRes on Tuesday, had the Tories 13% ahead…
To ease pressure on the server can we continue our discussions here. Mike Smithson
Is that a value bet or not? The above picture is a screen-shot from a TV interview Harriet gave within hours of the news coming out of the £5000 donation to her deputy campaign from David Abraham via a proxy. That was a couple of days ago when the stress was clearly showing. Since then Brown has hardly given her the ringing endorsement that she surely could have hoped for from her boss. Today, in her role as leader of…