Boris with 10-point lead in new You Gov poll

Boris with 10-point lead in new You Gov poll

Boris 47, Ken 37, Brian 10 – Boris leads 56-44 after second preferences A new poll out today for the Evening Standard / ITV London Tonight shows Boris Johnson, who officially opened his campaign today, with a 10-point lead over Ken Livingstone, while the Lib Dems’ Brian Paddick trails on 10% of first preferences. After re-allocating second preferences, this translates into a 12-point lead for Boris of 56-44, or a swing of about 11% from the performance of Steve Norris…

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Will May 1st resolve whether Toffs are electable?

Will May 1st resolve whether Toffs are electable?

Could the City Hall outcome be a marker for Downing Street? If London ITV is following its normal pattern then either today or tomorrow we should see a new opinion poll of voters in the capital on the London mayoralty. The organisation commissioned a YouGov survey at the end of every month since December and let us hope that it is following the normal pattern. I took last week’s news, which wasn’t as far as I know denied, that Downing…

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Team Obama claim victory in the second battle of Texas

Team Obama claim victory in the second battle of Texas

The Illinois senator claims a nine delegate caucus lead? One of the aspects of politics that I find absolutely intriguing is how the contenders and parties deal with the sheer mechanics. Consider the challenge facing Team Hillary and Team Obama yesterday as they sought to manage the 88,000 people who were elected in the caucuses that followed the Texas primary on March 4th. This weekend they attend dozens of district and county conventions at which 7.298 of were be elected…

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What the Sunday papers are saying

What the Sunday papers are saying

Politics in the newspapers as Summer Time begins The Sunday Times reports that a leaked Home Office memo shows that hundreds of illegal immigrants are working in care homes in the UK, while Brown has been condemned as “stilted and lacking personality” by one of his own Downing Street insiders. According to The Mail on Sunday, Westminster insiders privately predict that the scale of the expenditure on refurbishing his residence could be the final straw for the beleaguered Speaker, following…

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Ben Surtees previews Pennsylvania

Ben Surtees previews Pennsylvania

What can we expect from the Keystone State? For Barack Obama the last fortnight, since his failure to decisively see-off Hillary Clinton in Ohio and Texas, has been particularly bruising. The incendiary comments of his pastor Jeremiah Wright and the remarks of Geraldine Ferraro have thrust the issue of race back to the fore of the presidential campaign. Addressing the issue with his trademark eloquence and candour on Wednesday it is still unclear what (if anything) the Illinois Senator has…

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Off on holiday….

Off on holiday….

Just to say that my wife, Jacky, and I are off to France for a week – we’ll be stayig in an apartment in one of the houses above. Although I’ll be writing the odd article our stand-in editor, Paul Maggs will once again be in charge. Tomorrow morning we have a guest article on Pennsylvania by Ben Surtees and there are one or two of my “prepared this one earlier” pieces which will be published. Whether I am able…

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Will we ever learn to love the Tories?

Will we ever learn to love the Tories?

Look at the “Dismayed – Delighted” figures There’s now the full detail from this morning’s YouGov poll and I have extracted the above responses which I find interesting. Thus on the forced choice question Cameron now has a comfortable lead and the Lib Dem supporters questioned are almost neck and neck. The next question “Suppose a Conservative Government were formed under David Cameron which of these three statements would come nearest your own reaction?” provides a note of warning to…

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YouGov has Labour still below 30%

YouGov has Labour still below 30%

New poll suggests that Cameron is heading for a 100 seat majority The above graphic, reproduced from the seat calculator on Anthony Wells’s UK Polling Report site, shows what happens when you key in the projected vote shares from today’s March YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph. The survey paints the same broad picture that we’ve seen in all the post-budget polls – very bad news for Labour. When nearly a fortnight ago poll by the firm for the Sunday…

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