After the YouGov surveys showing Boris with 12% and 10% lead respectively there’s an ICM poll out tonight for the Guardian that suggests the race is much closer. When second preferences are taken into account Boris has a margin of just 2%
The first round prediction has Johnson 42%: Livingstone 41%: Paddick 10%
What will be particularly pleasing for the Johnson camp is that he is beating Ken on second preferences. The Guardian notes “….Among Liberal Democrats, 43% say they will use their second vote to support Johnson and only 30% will back Livingstone.”
This is very much in line with what YouGov and Ipsos-MORI have already found. The idea that Ken can rely on Lib Dem second choices is not supported by any of the polls.
Before we get too excited it should be noted that this is the first telephone poll ever that has had Ken Livingstone behind in a mayoral race.
All the phone polls that were carried out in 2000 and 2004 reported margins for Ken that were substantially larger than was actually achieved.
This is bound to affect the betting and in anticipation of this poll during the afternoon I have closed down large parts of my Johnson position.
Latest prices can be found here.
Mike Smithson……on holiday!