CON 34 (+1) LAB 30 (-15) LD 15 (-1) GRN 14 (+11) Is the first poll just in line with expectations? The above ICM poll with variations on what happened at the last election was commissioned by Norwich’s University & College Union and has just been published. The sample was just 500 which means a much higher margin of error must be applied. As can be seen the figures are broadly in line with current national polling and, indeed, it…
What if an “independent” Tory fought Bercow? One feature of the week that I’ve found shocking and unexpected has been the venom from many parts of the Tory party over the man who was elected speaker of the commons on Monday, John Bercow. I was no fan of the Buckingham MP but I made damn sure in my betting that I was covered on a Bercow victory even getting 4/1 on him while the first round votes were being counted….
CON 38 (-2) LAB 25(+1) LD 18 (nc) But “others” continue to impact on the numbers The Telegraph’s YouGov poll for June is out and shows modest changes on the last survey from the firm a fortnight ago. Labour will be pleased to have clawed back the deficit to what appears a modest 13 points. The Tories will be disappointed to be down in the 30s again while it’s no change for the Lib Dems. The changes are modest and…
Keeping up with the site while on the move In order to meet the need of PBers who want to follow the site while on the move but might be worried by the cost of roaming data charges while abroad we’ve created PB Mobile. This is a US-based service and it is configured for US users which is a tad irritating. It won’t send set-up instruction to non-US mobiles numbers and its way of handling comments system has a couple…
Could he have the winning formula after all? The largely settled view of commentators and punters alike is that Labour will lose the next general election. No pundit has predicted that Labour (still less Brown) will be running government after polling day for some time, and the betting markets make the Conservatives heavily odds-on to win an outright majority, never mind most seats. Labour’s implied percentage chances of keeping a majority are stuck in single figures. However, a slim chance…
Will the “dignified exit” then come in September? Ever since his survival after the June 4th elections disaster there’s been talk that a deal was done with Mandelson during those critical few days for Brown to be allowed to stay so he could have a “dignified exit” at a less frenetic time. This, I believe, is the sub-text of much of what is going on at the moment with Simon Carr putting it clearly in the Indy this morning. “And…
What do we think of Paul Linford’s speculation? Labour inclined blogger, Paul Linford has an interesting post under the heading “Could it be Prime Minister Bercow one day?”. His article looks at some of the historical precedent and then concludes: “..Bercow has said he will do nine years in the Chair, effectively two full Parliaments plus the toe-end of this one. That will make him 55 when he stands down – younger than Gordon Brown was when he became Prime…
BBC Online Will voters get bored by the details? Yet again today’s PMQ was dominated by the Tory leader trying to get the PM to admit that his answers a week ago and other public statements on cuts were not accurate. He was, in fact, being called a liar. The Tory strategy seems to be two-fold – to portray Brown as untrustworthy through his use of “dodgy” numbers and to get over that Labour is having to make cuts as…