ICM Research May 1994 Did Blair concede too much at the Granita? We all know about the famous dinner at the Granita in Islington at the end of May 1994 which has shaped British politics ever since. For Brown came away from that meeting thinking that he had Blair’s backing as the heir apparent in exchange for not pursuing his own candidature. Yet just looking back at the polling of the period this seems crazy. Brown was simply not in…
Best Labour leadership odds Are Johnson and the two Eds the big losers? Until last Thursday my “picks” as Brown’s replacement were Alan Johnson if there was a contest before the general election and Ed Balls if it took place afterwards. My view was that the former’s more conciliatory style and background might make him an ideal choice to face Cameron while Ed Balls had, the formidable Damien McBride on his team. Other bets placed in the past five months,…
Sporting Index Spread Markets PB “The Money Says Index”: CON MAJ 59 (+4) After our piece this morning and the “Smeargate” developments during the day the money has been going against Labour on the spread betting markets – where really serious political gamblers trade the number of seats that the parties will get at at the election as though they were stocks and shares. After a day of some activity the
BBC news online “SmearGate” continues to have traction We are now into a fourth successive news cycle and Downing Street is still finding it hard to move on to other things. The BBC is still leading on the story with Sky continuing to put it high up the bulletins. It’s not helped by the less than convincing letters that Gordon Brown sent yesterday. If these had been unequivocal then that might have stemmed the flood of bad headlines. They weren’t,…
Sporting Index Spread Markets PB “The Money Says Index”: CON MAJ 55 (+2) However much excitement there has been over the past four days it’s perhaps worth reminding ourselves that “Smear-gate”, or whatever you want to call it, has failed to persuade the serious political punters who play the spread markets to pile onto the Tories or to sell Labour seats. The latest SPIN spreads shown above have just advanced one seat forward for the Tories with the Labour spread…
What are the dangers for the Tories?
SkyNews …or will it just open up more questions? I don’t know whether Paul Staines (Guido) planned it like this but launching his story bang in the middle of a long bank holiday weekend has certainly helped it dominate now three full new cycles. During normal periods when the world is at work other stories are likely to emerge and it can be harder for something like “Smeargate” to maintain the traction. Well the latest development is from Number 10…
Will MPs be less intimidated by a McBride-less No.10? One thing that’s stood out during this sorry Easter weekend for Labour has been the number of party MPs who’ve been prepared to put their heads above the parapet and condemn the McBridge-Draper smear strategy. We saw it on PB with the forthright comments on one of the threads by Nick Palmer MP and there was a tough condemnation on the Tom Harris blog. Given that there’ve been so many within…